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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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185 FXUS64 KBMX 280548 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2024 Previously updated for POP and temperature trends. No other updates are needed at this time. /61/ Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2024 An area of low pressure will meander over western Alabama through the afternoon, weakening through the evening and early night. Flow will be from the west and southwest this afternoon, with plenty of low level moisture advecting into the southern half of the area. Instabilities will be around 1500 to 2000 J/kg though shear is fairly weak. With high PW values and weak shear, would expect strong storms to form with localized flooding possible in any storms that can train over the same area. Chances of stronger storms will be in the southeastern third of the area where instabilities and PW values will be the highest. The northwestern two thirds of the area could see more isolated showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, high pressure tries to develop over the area. Flow will remain from the south as the high pressure strengthens. PW values will remain high Friday, values well over 2" expected, with scattered, mainly diurnal, convection expected again. Instabilities appear lower, around 1000 J/kg at most. Temperatures will be lower today with the cloud cover expected to remain through the afternoon. As the low pressure weakens, clouds could begin clearing, though only the mid to upper 80s are expected this afternoon for high temps. Tonight should see lows in the low 70s, and with the high pressure expected tomorrow, temperatures in the low 90s are possible. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 308 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2024 Forecast remains on track this afternoon, with minor adjustments made to rain chances. Model guidance continues to suggest heat indices above 105F for portions of the west and south on Saturday, with most of the area impacted on Sunday. Heat Advisories are likely. Dewpoint trends continue to keep values in the mid to upper 70s Sunday afternoon. This would push heat indices toward 110F, and Excessive Heat Warnings would need to be considered. Scattered to numerous showers and storms, aided by upper level impulses and an approaching weak front, should bring relief to some areas. A reprieve is expected Monday and Tuesday as drier air spreads into the area behind a cold front. Temperatures will still be in the 90s, but lower moisture values will keep heat indices below 105F. Ridging builds back into the area for the middle of the week, as low and level moisture increases. Scattered rain chances return, with heat indices back in the 103-107F range for most of the area. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2024 Key message: - Oppressively hot and humid conditions are expected this weekend, with dangerous heat possible on Sunday as heat indices rise above 105 degrees. A multi-day heat wave is expected to continue through much of next week. Best rain chances will exist Saturday through Sunday, with scattered showers and storms possible each afternoon through the end of the forecast period. Another prolonged period of oppressive heat will begin this weekend as the 500mb ridge begins to build and broaden from Texas all the way east through the Deep South. The big difference in this heat wave compared to the one we`ve recently experienced will be the addition of more tropical low-level moisture with dewpoints expected to remain in the 70s during the afternoon hours. Rain chances on Saturday will remain across the eastern and southeastern portions of Central Alabama, with higher PWATs and deeper 700mb moisture transport from the southwest. Although shower and storm coverage is expected to be scattered to numerous, temperatures aloft due to the 500mb ridge strengthening to 597 decameters will be quite warm. Therefore strong to severe storms are not expected at this time. Where it doesn`t happen to rain, heat indices will rise between 100 and 105 degrees Saturday afternoon as highs top out in the low to mid 90s. So, even though we may escape Saturday without issuing a Heat Advisory, all bets will be off on Sunday. As the ridge continues to strengthen but slightly retrograde off to our west, a shortwave trough is expected to move through the Great Lakes states Sunday morning. A cold front will be moving southward into northern Arkansas and Tennessee during that time, along with synoptic lift in the form of a 500mb vort max within the northwesterly flow. Convective development will be likely with strong surface instability as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints holding in the low to mid 70s. A Heat Advisory will be needed if current guidance trends hold, but widespread convective development (potentially in the form of an MCS) may throw a wrench in those trends if storms move through a bit earlier. As of now, heat indices Sunday afternoon should easily rise between 105 and 110 degrees for just about everyone. The cold front is currently progged to move southward on Monday, with a fresh fetch of dry air moving in from the north at 700mb. How far south the dry air at the surface can move southward is still in question, which will affect locations that may need another Heat Advisory Monday afternoon. For now, those locations appear to be along the U.S. 80/I-85 corridors and points southward with plenty of moisture pooling out ahead of the surface front. Scattered to numerous showers and storms can also be expected across the southern half of Central Alabama. The 500mb ridge is currently advertised to build back in over Deep South through Thursday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible during the peak heating of the day. As highs top out in the upper 90s each day, we could enter into a prolonged period where Heat Advisories may be needed for several days in a row. With this being said, we`ll also have to start keeping an eye on the dreaded Drought Monitor, with significant rain chances staying out of reach likely through the end of next week. 56/GDG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2024 Most of the rain has dissipated tonight and should remain that way at least at the TAF sites. We will likely see some MVFR clouds build in and perhaps some IFR right at sunrise. Confidence in the MVFR is higher so will go that route through 15z. Showers and storms will likely develop after 17z so added in a prob30 at all sites. MGM may develop a little later and last a little longer so adjusted for that trend. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers and storms will remain in the forecast for Friday, with the best coverage across the southern half of Central Alabama. Rain chances increase for Saturday and Sunday. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent through Sunday. Southerly 20ft winds on Friday become westerly Saturday, and eventually northwesterly Sunday, but speeds remain less than 6mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 71 92 72 / 50 30 70 20 Anniston 91 73 91 75 / 50 30 70 20 Birmingham 92 74 92 75 / 50 30 70 20 Tuscaloosa 92 74 92 75 / 50 30 70 20 Calera 93 74 92 76 / 50 30 70 20 Auburn 89 73 89 75 / 70 30 70 20 Montgomery 91 73 92 74 / 70 30 70 20 Troy 91 72 92 73 / 70 30 70 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...16