936
FXUS65 KBOI 240843
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
243 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...A mild cold front
passed through this morning, maintaining cooler temperatures
with west-northwesterly winds across the Treasure Valley today.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid
90s. Higher elevations will experience westerly winds with
gusts up to 20-30 mph, creating warm, dry, and breezy conditions
conducive to active fire behavior. This may lead to smoke
plumes and haze, particularly east-northeast of the significant
fire in southwest Owyhee County.

On Tuesday, a much stronger trough from the Gulf of Alaska will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast, causing upper-level winds
to shift south- southwest. This change will bring a return to
hot temperatures. Moisture originating from the southwestern
U.S. will move northward reaching the Idaho/Nevada border
Tuesday evening. The moisture is high-based with minimal
potential for precipitation despite some convective activity.
Temperatures are forecasted to peak on Tuesday with light
surface winds and mostly clear skies, with a 30-60% chance of
temperatures reaching 100 degrees or higher.

By Wednesday, as the trough moves further inland, high-level
moisture increases across southwest Idaho. The upper- level jet
stream will pass over the area, enhancing instability and shear.
Precipitable water values reaching 1 inch over south- central
Idaho suggest favorable conditions for high-based thunderstorm
development. Model forecasts vary on exact locations of these
storms, but favor higher terrain in southwest Idaho. Inverted-V
profiles and strong mid-level winds indicate these storms may
produce gusty outflow winds, especially within the areas of
deepest moisture over south-central Idaho. Increased cloud cover
and west-northwesterly winds will keep temperatures slightly
cooler, around the mid 90s in the lower valleys.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A trough will continue
to move through the Pacific Northwest and bring in notably
cooler temperatures for both Thursday and Friday. Surface winds
will become breezy Thursday in the wake of the cold front, but
the chance for precipitation is less than 10 percent. Dry,
westerly flow will develop Friday as the trough exits toward the
east, with hot temperatures returning for the weekend as an
upper ridge strengthens over the Intermountain West. Models
currently indicate an increase of moisture Sunday and Monday as
the next Pacific trough approaches, yielding a potential (15-30%
chance) for showers and thunderstorms for northeast Oregon and
west-central Idaho on Sun/Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Reduced visibility from smoke in far SW Idaho.
Surface winds: generally SW to NW 5-15 kt. Afternoon gusts to 20-25
kt in SE Oregon and near ID/NV border. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-
SW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH