480
FXUS65 KBOI 221519
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
919 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...Warming Monday through Wednesday, gradually
cooling to normal by Saturday. Latest NBM has highs near 90
degrees in the lower southern valleys on Wednesday. Guidance
also has higher low temps and dew points than before in all
areas Tuesday through Friday. No rain expected the next seven
days under dry westerly flow aloft. Light west winds at the
surface will increase Monday and again late this week as
westerly flow aloft increases. In the distant extended, ECM
shows no realistic chance of rain until Wednesday, Oct 2, and
then only on the Oregon side. No updates for now.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with high clouds. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt
with local gusts to 20 kt this evening. Winds at 10kft: W-NW
10-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds light SE becoming NW 5-10 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...The weather today
will be a good match for the first day of Autumnal Fall as high
temperatures are within a couple degrees of normal. High clouds
will increase this afternoon into tonight as a trough slides by
our north and east. It will lack the moisture to bring any
precipitation and have little effect on temperatures, but will
increase winds on Monday especially across SW Idaho. After the
seasonal start to fall, Tuesday will bring a notable warming
trend as temperatures rise to around 10 degrees above normal in
response to a building upper ridge.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Wednesday is the warmest
day of the week as the upper ridge axis shifts to the east,
bringing in a southwest flow aloft. High temperatures will top
out about 15 degrees above normal, putting lower elevations in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. In the lower Snake Plain, the
probability of reaching 90 degrees has risen to between 30 and
60% on Wednesday. An upper trough clips the region late Wed/Thur
as it rides over the ridge. Any minimal precipitation chances
would be across e-central Oregon on Wednesday, but for now the
forecast keeps precipitation chances less than 10% across Baker
County. The passing trough will usher in slightly cooler air,
dropping temperatures 5-10 degrees from Wednesday. A more zonal
flow will set up going into the weekend with the storm track
staying to our north. This keeps the area dry with temperatures
returning to near normal for next weekend.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG