063
FXUS65 KBOI 281553
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
953 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...Friday will stay dry and cooler than normal as
colder air exits east and a ridge begins to build. Some smoke
may be visible across the area from wildfires to the west. The
ridge`s strength will peak on Saturday bringing a sharp warm up
from Friday with temps 5-10 degrees above normal. Light-
moderate winds on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front
late Saturday night. The cold front comes associated with an
upper trough bringing slightly wetter weather with building
clouds and precipitation. Best precipitation chances occur
between Saturday night and Sunday evening, with a 15-30% chance
of precipitation over most of the higher terrain but a <10%
chance in the lower valleys. Some isolated thunderstorm activity
Sunday afternoon/evening has the potential to come off of
mountains and into the valleys, but this is still outside of the
range of mesoscale models so more information will come in
following forecasts. Next week will see gradual warming and
breezy conditions each afternoon. No updates to the forecast
grids this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR under mostly clear skies. Patchy smoke/haze
from regional wildfires may reduce visibility. Surface winds: W-NW
5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR under mostly clear skies. Smoke may be visible aloft. Surface
winds stay NW 6-12 kt through the day and turn SE 5-7 kt around
midnight.

Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR. Potential for smoke/haze to
continue near wildfires. Increasing clouds late Saturday and Sunday.
A 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop over
northeast Oregon Saturday night, spreading to southeast Oregon and
the higher terrain of southwest Idaho on Sunday. Surface winds: SE-
SW 5-15 kt on Saturday, becoming NW 10-20 kt Saturday night and
Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Upper trough and cool
air will exit east today allowing an upper ridge to build northward
in the Great Basin. On Saturday the upper ridge will be along
the Continental Divide with our CWA under southwest flow aloft.
Saturday will be a full 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today and
back into the 90s in the valleys and 80s in the mountains.
Clouds will increase in Oregon Saturday as a Pacific upper
trough nears the coast. On Sunday the trough will be inland
over Oregon with increasing moisture and instability leading
to a 15 to 25 percent chance of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms in southeast Oregon, and then a 30 to 40 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms in Baker County/OR and the
west central Idaho mountains Sunday night. The moisture source
will be north of 40N in the Pacific, unlike the monsoon surge
Wednesday from southern CA/AZ and NV. Still, this moisture and
instability ahead of an approaching cold front will produce at
least some strong, if not severe, thunderstorms Sunday night.
Finally, wildfires in southeast Oregon will create patchy smoke
in Malheur County/OR and nearby parts of southwest Idaho today
and Saturday.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...An upper level trough will
move across the Pacific NW on Monday. However, the trough will
not be deep and temperatures will remain near normal. Moisture
will be limited with a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the central Idaho mountains, with dry conditions elsewhere.
Winds will be breezy, strongest across south-central Idaho where
gusts to 40 mph are possible.

For Tuesday through Friday, the center of an upper level ridge
will gradually move from the eastern Pacific to northern
California and Nevada, while upper level troughing continues
across Montana and the northern Great Plains. This will place
our area in a dry northwest flow, bringing breezy afternoon
winds each day with little to no chance of precipitation.
Temperatures will gradually warm as the ridge axis moves inland,
with highs by Friday around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST