


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
023 FXUS65 KBOI 110929 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 329 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...The heat will return for the weekend as high pressure expands north from the Desert SW. The air mass remains dry through Saturday, with a hint of mid-level moisture increasing across the central Idaho mtns and along the OR/NV border late Sunday. It`s not a strong signal, but could be enough to feed cumulus buildups in these areas Sunday afternoon. Have introduced smoke wording to the forecast for these same areas with wildfires in northern CA and new starts in the central ID mtns being the main source. The winds will follow a diurnal cycle, increasing out of the W-NW each day across open terrain with gusts up to 25 mph in the typically windier spots. Temperatures warm 2-5 degrees each day, so that by Sunday lower elevations are straddling 100 degrees. The combination of Sunday`s 100+ degree highs and warm temperatures Sunday night could pose a heat risk for the Lower Treasure Valley. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...An upper level ridge will continue to bring hot, dry, and breezy conditions on Monday, with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal. The pattern will begin to shift on Tuesday as an upper level trough moves south into the Northern Rockies. Ensemble blends favor slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as a dry cold front moves through. However, some models keep the trough further north with little to no cooling from Monday. The system should keep winds breezy into Tuesday. Precipitation associated with the system is expected to remain north and east of our area, with only a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the central ID mountains. Models disagree on the pattern evolution after Wednesday, but favor troughing along the coast late next week. While shower/thunderstorm chances currently are low (<10% chance) at any given location and time, models hint at enough moisture in southwest flow ahead of the trough for a limited thunderstorm threat. This pattern should also allow temperatures to rebound to around 5 degrees above normal by late week. && .AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear, except for scattered cumulus developing this afternoon over the mountains. Localized smoke near wildfires in central ID and south-central OR. Surface winds: W-NW 5- 15 kt, with gusts 15-25 kt from KBKE southeast through the Snake Basin this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds W-NW 5-10 kt. Gusts around 20 kt this afternoon. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Mostly clear. Localized smoke near wildfires. High density altitude due to hot temperatures, especially Sunday/Monday. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt, with 15-25 kt gusts each afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....ST