Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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923 FXUS65 KBOU 240207 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 807 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures expected through next week with mid 90s to low 100 readings across the plains and eastern I-25 corridor early next week. - Heat Advisory Monday and Tuesday for the Denver Metro. - Continued heat across the region through the end of the upcoming work week. - Slight pattern change moving into the weekend bringing a slight cool-down and better shower/storm coverage. && .UPDATE... Issued at 804 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 No updates this evening as the forecast package remains on track. Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday afternoon across the region. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 It`s hot outside. A quick glance at observed temperatures so far today shows most locations in the plains have already made it to the mid 90s. The warmest spots in our CWA look to be Logan county (99s from AWOS/RAWS/CoAgMet stations) and Phillips county (100F at the Haxtun CoAgMet). Across the I-25 corridor, there`s been a few upper 90s readings... with maybe a degree or two to go at most locations. Meanwhile, radar has been quiet so far today and only a couple of high-based are expected later this afternoon given meager instability. Overnight lows tonight should remain above normal across the forecast area, with low generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains. Guidance shows a strong signal for weak downslope flow to continue overnight for the western metro, with HREF mean MinT close to 70F in some spots. Another hot day is expected on Monday, with temperatures quickly rising into the 90s during the mid/late morning hours. Forecast highs are pretty similar to today with relatively similar mid- level temperatures expected. Main change in this period was to add the western suburbs zone (COZ039) into the Heat Advisory. Temperatures are marginal but the limited relief overnight tonight and the warm start to the morning was just enough to tip the scales towards issuing, though it was admittedly a marginal/50-50 decision. One caveat for tomorrow`s temperatures is the coverage of showers in the afternoon hours. Guidance shows a slight increase in moisture/instability tomorrow afternoon, and isolated to widely scattered showers should develop near peak heating. Gusty outflow winds will be the main threat (DCAPE > 1500 J/kg) and would also bring some relief from the heat. && .LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/... Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Tuesday...This is shaping up to be another very hot day region wide. Several pieces of ensemble guidance are showing 90-99% chances of exceeding 95F across the Denver Metro and points east which would make it 7 days this month of 95+F heat which we have only accomplished two other times through June 25th since 2000. The one fly in the ointment, because flies love ointment I guess, is the higher based convection and quicker moving outflows and cirrus shield that could keep us cooler than currently expected. With 700hpa temperatures projected to exceed 19-20C it`s downright hot regardless of the time of the year, even in the high terrain where mid to upper-60s above 10kft are possible. Wednesday - Saturday...A bit more moisture tries to work into the region from the southwest aloft as mid-level ridging starts to meander back towards the west and we tap into some Gulf of Mexico moisture across the east along the surface. West-northwest driven shortwave troughs carve into the top of this ridge throughout the week as well allowing heights to decrease, meaning some cooling within the column, and some weak lift for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. We`re still thinking several more days with 90+F heat though timing of showers/storms and cloud cover could keep us cooler the later part of this work week. It`s really not until we get into Friday and the first half of the weekend do we start to see better chances for sub-90F heat along with more scattered showers and storms. The reprieve could be short lived with ridging reloading just south of the region bumping temperatures backup again. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds continue until early evening. Drainage winds should begin tonight through Monday morning. Scattered showers will develop Monday afternoon brining mostly wind to all terminals. Expect wind gusts up to 35kts. By 01Z-02Z, showers will push east. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ039. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ040. && $$ UPDATE...AD SHORT TERM...Hiris LONG TERM...Heavener AVIATION...AD