074
FXUS65 KBOU 222014
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
214 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly night ahead, with patchy frost and fog possible in
  portions of the high country and plains tonight.

- Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant
  precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Last of the showers are diminishing over the northeast plains,
although an isolated shower is still trying to pop up over the
mountains due to daytime heating. Anything that is around will
end before sunset, with drier air moving in as upper level
ridging builds over the area tonight and Monday.

Clearing skies and light winds will allow for strong radiational
cooling, so a chilly night is on tap. Patchy frost will be
possible in some of the colder spots on the plains (e.g. rural
eastern weld County and a few spots around Lincoln County).
However, low level moisture in the wake of last night`s and this
morning`s rain will limit some of that. The low level moisture
also means some patchy fog is possible in the high mountain
valleys and typical spots in the Cache La Poudre and South Platte
River valleys.

Monday will feature warmer temperatures with warm advection and
more sunshine. Mid/high clouds will increase from the west late
in the day, with perhaps an isolated shower in the high country
otherwise warm and dry conditions will prevail for the afternoon
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

I hope everyone enjoyed dipping their toes into the cooler and
wetter fall-like conditions today, because it seems Mother Nature
isn`t quite ready to let the new season take hold. The extended
forecast will certainly feel more like summer with above normal
temperatures expected through the week as a 500mb ridge centers
itself over the Great Basin in the first half of the week.

Overnight monday, a cool front will slide south into the forecast
area. While increased cloud cover is likely, no precipitation is
expected as a result of its passage. Cloudy skies will help keep
overnight low temperatures above normal across the plains, and near
normal for the high mountains and valleys.

700 mb temperatures associated with the cold front are expected to
range between 5-11C on Tuesday, resulting in slightly cooler high
temperatures than Monday`s, but still approaching the 80s across the
foothills and plains, 60s and 70s for the mountains. 700 mb
temperatures quickly increase, nearing 18C through Friday. This will
translate to afternoon high temperatures nearing 90 once again
across the plains, with Thursday looking like the warmest day of the
week. The record high for DIA on this date is 90 degrees, which was
last recorded in 2010. While forecasted temperatures don`t quite tie
the record, they are expected to come close. These warm and dry
conditions are expected to persist into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Rain has ended, but one last band of rain extends north of the
airports, still trying to back in from the northeast. We think
that band mostly dissipates through ~19-20Z so just VCSH to
start, then dry. Ceilings will be improving through the afternoon.
Light southeast flow has taken care of the MVFR ceilings for the
most part, at least for KDEN and KAPA. We expect a break of the
4000-5000 ft AGL ceilings around 22Z, give or take an hour or two.
Then VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies overnight
through Monday. Patchy fog threat tonight will stay north of the
Denver TAF sites with light drainage winds almost certain (95%) to
prevail.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bonner
AVIATION...Barjenbruch