896
FXUS65 KBOU 230936
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
336 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through next week with mid 90s
  to low 100 readings across the plains and eastern I-25 corridor
  early next week.

- Heat Advisory Monday and Tuesday for the Denver Metro Area.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Skies are clear across the CWA this morning. Temperatures are
still pretty warm for this time of day with 60s F over most of
the plains.

Models have the upper ridge right over Colorado today and tonight
with 40-60 knot, zonal jet level flow.  There is benign synoptic
scale energy progged for the CWA the first two periods according
to the QG Omega fields. In the lower levels, weak troughing is
progged east of the mountains today with fairly normal diurnal
wind patterns.

For moisture, model precipitable water values are in the 0.50 to
0.90 inch range today and tonight, with surface dew points progged
in the mid 30s to lower 50s F.  CAPE values are fairly low overall,
with the highest CAPE over the mountains and eastern border. Pops
will be low to none for update, and the storms that do develop
will produce little rain just some virga driven outflow winds.

The main weather story will be the heat. Today`s highs will be
2-4 C warmer than yesterday`s highs with readings in the 95-100 F
range for most of the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Upper level high will reside over the Central and Southern
Rockies Monday and Tuesday. This will bring very warm to hot
conditions to the region. Across northeast Colorado, highs are
expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with a few locations
topping 100F degrees. On Monday, precipitable water values will be
around a half inch over the higher terrain and three-quarters of
an inch over the plains. This moisture combined with CAPE reaching
500 J/kg is expected to result in scattered high-based showers
and thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds to 50 mph will be possible
with the convection. Any rainfall is expected to be brief and
light. For Tuesday, airmass dries slightly. Also, there`s a weak
northerly push during the day. This may lower temperatures a
little, which will help stabilize the airmass.

On Wednesday, the upper level high begins to slowly sink
southward. Moisture increases across the area and is expected to
result in an increase in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, but likely
fall a couple degrees due to the increase in moisture/clouds.

An upper level trough traveling across the northern part of the
country pushes the ridge southward on Thursday. Expected slight
decrease in temperature, which puts highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Decent moisture stays in place with precipitable water values
around three-quarters of an inch over the higher terrain and just
above an inch over the plains. Expect to see another round of
scattered to numerous showers and storms Thursday
afternoon/evening.

Forecast becomes more unclear for Friday and next weekend.
Westerly flow aloft is expected to prevail Friday around the base
of an upper level trough passing north of Colorado. This system
could trigger a round of showers and storms, if the best lift
occurs during peak heating. For next weekend, the upper level high
begins to reintensify and shift westward. Models generally agree
the ridge stays off to the southeast with southwest flow aloft
prevailing. This may bring an increase in subtropical moisture.
It`s too soon to know how much moisture will advect northward.
Will keep scattered/isolated PoPs in the forecast for next
weekend. As far as temperatures go, cooler air behind Friday`s
trough should make Saturday be the coolest (least warmest?) day.
Though highs will still be close to 90F across northeast Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Expect normal diurnal wind patterns overnight and on Sunday with
fairly weak speeds. There will be no ceiling issues.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....Meier
AVIATION.....RJK