013
FXUS61 KBOX 210732
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
332 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore low remains stagnant through this evening and begins
to move to the southeast Sunday and continue through Monday.
While dry weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday, cloudier
conditions and onshore breezes are expected, along with a risk
for higher surf through Monday. Rain chances then increase again
for midweek as a frontal system moves in from the Great Lakes.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected into
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Today

Little change in the forecast for today as the area of low pressure
south of Nantucket continues to dominate the weather in southern New
England. Steady northeast winds from 10 to 20 mph persist today with
periods of showers for locations east of Worcester. Winds will also
remain gusty near the coast and especially over The Cape/Islands
where periods of 30+ mph gusts are expected this afternoon. Highs
today top out in the low to mid 60s across eastern MA and RI. Areas
further west look to stay dry, but under overcast skies. Highs in
the CT River Valley reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Tonight and Tomorrow

Area of low pressure south of Nantucket slowly retrogrades
southeast. Latest model guidance suggests it will regress far enough
that low-level jet will shift south off the south coast bringing an
end to the steady rainfall and stronger northeast wind gusts.
Nonetheless, elevated northeast winds persist tonight from 10 to 20
mph with some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range near the coast. Lows
bottom out in the mid too upper 50s across eastern MA and RI. Areas
to the west may see some clearing overnight, particularly areas near
the CT River Valley. This would allow for slightly cooler
temperatures in the lows 50s overnight.

Sunday will feature very slow improvements to the cloudy/dreary
pattern we`ve been stuck in since mid-week. Not expecting any
precipitation, but overcast skies will be likely across eastern MA
and RI for most of the day. Should see some breaks of sun west of
Worcester where high temperatures will be pleasant in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Can`t rule out some late sunshine for areas east of
Worcester as skies gradually clear with the area of low-pressure off
the south coast continuing to move out to sea.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Highlights:

* While dry, still a cloudier-than-not period with continued NE
  breezes through Tue. High surf and/or elevated risk for rip
  currents as well through at least early next week, and minor
  coastal flooding on east-facing coasts again possible into Sun.

* Frontal system around Wed or Thu offers the next chance for
  rainfall, although the timing remains uncertain.

* Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

Details:

The stagnant low pressure finally gets kicked out to sea as a high
pressure builds over southern New England from eastern Canada. This
high pressure will dominate our weather with drier and cooler
conditions into at least early Wednesday. Some question after then
about how quickly this high pressure will move off to the east and
permit a low pressure to move into the Great Lakes. Latest guidance
suite may be a little too fast returning a risk for showers
Wednesday given the synoptic pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
details, stayed closer to the NationalBlend solution. More
confident in unsettled weather redeveloping late next week as a low
pressure passes by.

With the continued northeasterly flow and elevated seas, there will
continue to be a risk for rip currents and high surf with a need for
rip current and/or surf headlines for the eastern coast. While
astronomical tides trend lower each day, we could still have pockets
of minor coastal flooding and/or washover onto vulnerable shoreline
roads Monday, but the risk is considerably lower than this weekend.

Northeast winds become east Tuesday, then persist into late next
week. This will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12Z...High Confidence

Continued MVFR ceilings teetering near IFR with cloud bases
around 1000 feet. Gusty northeast winds near the coast with 30+
knot gusts over The Islands. Showers may reach as far inland as
ORH, but expect mainly the eastern showers to observer -SHRA
this evening.

Today...High Confidence

Continued IFR/MVFR ceilings east of ORH with improvements to VFR
at BAF/BDL by 16-18Z. Gusty northeast winds gradually diminish
but remain elevated with gusts up to 20 knots near the coast
and 25 to 30 knots over The Cape/Islands terminals. Shower
activity remains confined to the same locations.

Tonight...High Confidence

MVFR ceilings everywhere except BAF/BDL where VFR cloud bases
should prevail. Some patchy fog developing overnight in the
typically fog prone areas. Steady  near 10 knots with some
gusts up to 20 knots possible. Shower activity wanes toward 12Z.

Sunday...High Confidence

MVFR for the first half of the day, then gradual improvements to
VFR by mid to late afternoon. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

BOS TAF...High Confidence

Remaining between MVFR and IFR through this afternoon. Appears
better chances for rains around 11z and continue until midday
before shifting southward. NE winds continue, gusting up to 30
knots tonight before mostly remaining around 25 knots Saturday.
Should see improvements to VFR by Saturday evening.

BDL TAF... High Confidence

Deterioration to MVFR ceilings tonight, before trending VFR
ceilings around Sat aftn.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday

Gale force wind gusts gradually die down today over the south
coastal waters, but seas remain elevated with significant wave
heights continuing to range from 6 to 10 feet over the marine zones.
While gale force gusts should diminish by this afternoon, still
expect persistent northeast winds with gusts up to 30 knots. This
pattern will continue through at least Sunday.SCY headlines will be
needed through this time frame. A High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for the southern New England coastline.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for this afternoons high
tide. Storm surge associated with the area of low-pressure south of
Nantucket likely peaked yesterday around 1.6-1.7 feet. There were
several reports of minor coastal flooding along the east coast. With
total water levels slightly lower today, we don`t anticipate impacts
any worse than what was observed yesterday, but we do expect another
round of minor coastal flooding with todays high tide. With the area
of low-pressure slowly retrograding southeast, the elevated water
levels will persist into tomorrow afternoons` high tide when another
Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect.

In addition...because this is a long duration event there is
also concern for beach erosion. This is especially true for
areas that were hard hit by the storms of last winter.

Lastly...we have gone with High Surf Advisories for all ocean
exposed beaches along both coasts given the rough seas offshore.



&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     this afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-019-
     020-022>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ230-
     236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-250-251.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ232>235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...Belk/RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RM