385
FXUS64 KBRO 191959
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
259 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Key Messages:

-Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the western Gulf of Mexico this
 morning.

-Periods of heavy rain will continue through the period.

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to be the main focus for the
short term period with Alberto expected to make landfall Thursday
morning in northeastern Mexico. While the storm will make
landfall well south of the CWA, the broad wind-field of Tropical
Storm force winds has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for all of
Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron counties. Winds will continue to
increase through the rest of today and this evening, especially
along the coast, where gusts could exceed 45 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
period and the WPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall
today and a slight risk Thursday. Heavy rains could pose a threat
of flash flooding through the period. Generally an additional 2
to 4 inches of rainfall is expected for much of the region through
Thursday night. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially
in areas that see multiple bands of heavy rainfall.

Additionally the enhancement of low-level shear profile through
this evening will present a threat for some brief tornadoes. The
SPC has a Marginal Risk today for most of Deep South Texas.

Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to continue
producing hazardous conditions along the area beaches. High Surf,
Rip Currents, and moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated with
this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to impact Deep South Texas for
the first part of the long term period as rain lingers into
Friday. Rain chances will continue into this weekend and next week
as another area of disturbed weather in the southern Bay of
Campeche. This area of disturbed weather along with mid/upper
level high pressure over the southern Plains into the SE U.S. will
continue to lead to east/southeasterly flow helping to funnel
tropical moisture into the region. Current forecast shows another
2 to 4 inches (locally higher amounts) Friday through Tuesday.
Currently the NHC has this system at a 30% chance of development
in the next 5 days.

While temperature have not been quite so high thanks to the tropical
system, next week temperatures will slowly climb back into the 90s
and "feels like" temperatures will creep back up into the upper 90s
and 100s.

Beach conditions will improve over the weekend as seas begin to
diminish in the wake of Tropical Storm Alberto.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Through 18z Thursday....

Aviation IDSS Key Messages:

* Waves of showers and thunderstorms to persist over the next 24
  hours

* Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions to continue; Instances of LIFR possible
  in the heaviest rain bands

* Winds will remain gusty at times out of the east-northeast

MVFR conditions with intervals of rain were taking place at the
terminals this afternoon under a BKN-OVC deck of cumulonimbus and
cumulus clouds with bases ranging between 1,000-3,000 feet AGL.
Visibilities were unrestricted at KBRO/KHRL, while -RA and BR had
visibilities reduced to 3 statute miles.

MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys are expected to persist through the 18z TAF
cycle as waves of showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical
Storm Alberto continue. There could be instances of LIFR conditions
in some of the heaviest of rain bands.

Winds are expected to continue out of the east-northeast between 15-
25 kts with gusts between 35-40 kts through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to lead to hazardous marine
conditions through the remainder of the week. Tropical Storm force
winds are expected to persist through at least Thursday afternoon
with seas remaining in the 12-16 foot range through tonight and
slowly lowering through the weekend. By Monday seas of 4 to 5
feet are expected. Another system may potentially develop over the
weekend in the Bay of Campeche leading to additional showers and
thunderstorms into early next week which could locally enhance
winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  89  80  91 /  90  90  80  90
HARLINGEN               78  89  77  91 /  90  80  80  90
MCALLEN                 79  89  78  91 /  90  90  80  90
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  86  77  89 /  90  90  80  90
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  87  83  86 /  90  70  90  90
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  89  79  89 /  90  70  80  90

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355-451-454-
     455.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-
     353>355-451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ351-354-355-
     451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...23