393
FXUS64 KBRO 241735
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The tropical disturbance has now moved on to the Mexican Coast and
the area of showers and thunderstorms now remains entirely to the
South of the CWA. However, lingering tropical moisture is expected
to keep PWATs above 2 through the period. These higher moisture
values and a moderately unstable environment could allow for the
development of seabreeze convection this afternoon. A similar,
albeit slightly less favorable setup looks likely for Tuesday
afternoon as well. The CAMs are in fairly good agreement with an
area of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms spread
across Deep South Texas.

Otherwise, skies are expected to be mostly sunny today and Tuesday,
allowing for warmer temperatures to work back into the region. With
the high moisture content already present, heat indices could climb
into the 105-110 range this afternoon, with slightly warmer
temperatures possible Tuesday afternoon.

As seas continue to calm along the coast, some minor coastal
flooding is still expected today, especially around high tide this
morning. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The most recent tropical outlook from NHC has dropped any
development through 7 days to 0 percent. SSTs across the western
Gulf have cooled temporarily due to the past week of broad low
pressure, increased winds, and churning Gulf waters.

Despite a potential lack of any tropical development, the mid-
level ridge remains anchored across Texas this week before
swinging over the Southeast through the weekend, keeping an avenue
for tropical moisture and onshore flow across Deep South Texas
through the forecast period. The NBM maintains convection
offshore, especially overnight into each morning, then brings rain
chances inland each afternoon, generally with the sea breeze. A
rather typical summer setup, with abundant tropical moisture
making any shower or storm very efficient rain makers.

Showers and any thunderstorms will likely remain isolated
Wednesday and Thursday, with the best chance of rain over the
weekend. PWAT values remain near to above 2 inches through the
long term period, near and above the 90th percentile for late
June, with the highest PWAT values of near daily max values of 2.4
inches arriving Friday through Saturday.

Near normal highs and lows are expected through the long term,
with humid conditions briefly pushing Heat Indices towards 110
degrees each afternoon. Sea breeze convection may limit highs a
degree or two and then stifle Heat Indices as well where any
showers or storms persist. Patchy fog may be possible each
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal SCT to BKN cloud
cover and scattered SHRA across the region. High res guidance
indicates scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA will be possible
through the afternoon and early evening hours as high moisture
content remains in place. There is a low potential of intermittent
MVFR ceilings late tonight into tomorrow, but confidence was too
low to warrant a mention in the TAF at this time. Otherwise,
expect east to southeast winds around 10 knots to prevail through
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Today through Tuesday...Surface high pressure across the Gulf of
Mexico will support light to moderate seas and light onshore winds
through the period. Some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the coastal waters and Laguna Madre
today as an influx of tropical moisture moves across the area.
Favorable conditions are expected through the remainder of the
period.

Tuesday Night through Sunday...High pressure works from Texas into
the Southeast this week through the weekend, maintaining
southeasterly onshore flow across the lower Texas coastal waters.
Abundant tropical moisture will continue showers and thunderstorms
each day, especially late night into early mornings before pushing
onshore with any sea breeze. Small Craft Caution conditions are
possible on Friday and Saturday, mainly across the bay.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  80  93  80 /  30  10  20   0
HARLINGEN               93  76  95  76 /  30   0  20   0
MCALLEN                 94  78  95  79 /  30  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         91  77  94  77 /  30  20  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  82  88  82 /  30  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  79  92  79 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ351-
     354-355-451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...22-Garcia