708
FXUS61 KBTV 082333
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will continue to control the regions weather
through Monday with scattered to numerous diurnal showers each day,
along with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Drier conditions
return mid-week along with more seasonally warm temperatures, but
the threat for showers returns for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 714 PM EDT Saturday...Showers are diminishing as one
trough exits and with loss of heating. A brief interlude of high
pressure will occur late this evening before the next
precipitation moves into the region shortly after midnight. No
large changes necessary with the forecast verifying well.

Previous Discussion...Today has basically been a rinse and
repeat of yesterday in regard to diurnally driven showers
developing from mid- morning through the afternoon, but the big
difference has been the lack of instability and areal coverage
as mid-level heights have been slowly rising in response to an
upper trough lifting out of the region. Lingering showers this
afternoon will dissipate towards sunset with quiet conditions
expected for the majority of night as weak ridging develops.
Mostly cloudy skies will generally prevail with overnight lows
ranging through the 50s.

Early Sunday our next shortwave trough currently over Lake Superior
approaches, and centers over the region in the afternoon. A batch of
more stratiform rain is expected to precede the trough tracking
through the region from 09-15Z before moving out, but soundings for
the afternoon continue to show steepening low level lapse rates and
the development of modest instability of 500-800 J/kg of CAPE
supporting some isolated thunderstorm development. Expect areal
coverage for the afternoon to be more than today, but less than
Friday and small hail from any stronger cores is certainly a
possibility as well with freezing levels only progged to be around
7000 feet. Highs will remain on the cool side of normal in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 247 PM EDT Saturday...The center of a closed mid/upper lvl
cyclonic circulation wl be located over northern Maine at 12z
Monday, with several embedded s/w pieces of energy still rotating
acrs our cwa. This energy, combined with cyclonic northwest upslope
flow, and favorable 850 to 500mb rh>70% supports the idea of chc to
low likely pops for Monday. Crnt progged position of forcing and
deepest moisture, would have the mtns of northern/central VT and
parts of the NEK with the highest pops, while values taper off
toward the SLV and lower CPV/CT Valley on Monday. Given cold core
aloft and limited instability, feel probability of thunder is <15%
attm and wl not include in crnt fcst. Furthermore, the NBM shows
probability of sfc based CAPE >400 J/kg only in the 10-20% range
acrs southern/central VT on Monday, indicating limited instability.
We wl cont to monitor trends if more clearing/heating can develop
for greater threat for a rumble or two. Otherwise, progged 925mb
temps are pretty cool for this time of year with values in the 8-10C
range, supporting highs mostly in the 60s to lower 70s near VSF.
Monday night areal coverage of precip quickly dissipates as weak sfc
ridging tries to build into our cwa. The cyclonic flow aloft still
supports the idea of lingering clouds with maybe a light shower over
the trrn, but mostly dry conditions should prevail. If pockets of
clearing develop, patchy fog is possible, but feel probability is
<20% attm given clouds and winds, but something to watch. Lows range
from the lower 40s to mid 50s on Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 247 PM EDT Saturday...The large scale pattern wl feature a
drier and warmer setup for mid to late week, typical of early to mid
June. The probability of precip increases in the Thurs/Friday
timeframe, but have kept values in the 20-35% range for now. In
addition, neither day looks to be a complete washout, but more
typical of aftn/evening showers/storms associated with s/w energy
and passage of several boundaries. Given the developing fast flow
aloft, timing s/w energy and associated boundaries becomes
increasingly more difficult in the later periods. Weak short wave
ridge tries to develop on Tues into Weds as small/compacted vort
slides off the mid Atlantic with best forcing and moisture staying
south of our cwa. Progged 925mb temps warm a few degrees with values
12-14C on Tues and 15-17C on Weds, supporting highs 70s on Tues and
mid 70s to lower 80s by Weds. Given the drying profiles have
expanded the overnight low ranges from lower 40s to mid/upper 50s
Weds and upper 40s to near 60F by Thurs. By late week elongated s/w
energy associated with mid/upper lvl trof passing to our nw results
in modest height falls acrs the ne conus. This energy combined with
slightly better instability and moisture results in chc pops on
Thurs/Fri. If crnt progs hold, granted its 6 to 7 days away and
always subject to change, high pres builds into our cwa for a drying
trend toward next weekend. Increasing south/southwest flow ahead of
elongated energy wl help to advect warmer temps back into our cwa,
with progged 925mb temps back into the 18-20C range by Thurs/Friday
supporting highs upper 70s to mid 80s. Crnt guidance keeps warmest
temps and best instability mostly south of our cwa for the next 5 to
7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Winds are gradually decreasing this
evening, generally out of the west-southwest. We expect gusts
15-20 knots to diminish at all sites by 02Z-05Z Monday, when SLK
could have some low level wind shear through about 09Z.

Rain showers are expected to return around 09Z-15Z, which could
lower visibilities at times to MVFR levels. Steadiest rain will
occur for southern sites, like RUT, MPV, and even SLK, likely
just scraping northern most sites MSS and EFK. Ceilings will
lower with this bout of precipitation, dropping to MVFR and
occasional IFR levels around the same time precipitation moves
through. Ceilings should begin to improve around 15Z-19Z, though
rain and rain showers could continue through much of the 24 hour
TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Storm