Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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002 FXUS61 KBTV 250529 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 129 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After another day of mostly dry weather today, the next chances for rain arrive tomorrow through Thursday as a series of fronts move through, before drier weather returns for the end of the week. After a brief cool down on Wednesday, temperatures will return to near normal for the remainder of the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1227 AM EDT Wednesday...Showers continue to spread across northern NY early this morning, and will likely make it into northern/western VT in the next few hours. Clouds are likewise spreading overhead, and only the Northeast Kingdom has yet to see overcast conditions. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s, and with increasing clouds, don`t anticipate a whole lot more additional cooling. Have made some adjustments to PoPs and sky cover to match the latest radar/satellite trends, but overall the forecast is in good shape and no significant changes were needed. Previous discussion...It`s been a dry and seasonably warm day across the region today, albeit a bit cloudy than the last couple of days. The dry weather will come to an end this evening as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes pivots eastward towards Quebec, with the accompanying surface low and associated frontal boundary following, bringing a wetting rainfall to the region. Cloud cover will continue to increase as we head into the evening and overnight hours before showers begin to push into northern New York and slowly work eastward late tonight. Although the showers will be fairly widespread as they move in, the will likely wane in coverage as they move into the Champlain Valley, although they will become more numerous late in the Wednesday and continue into Thursday. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible, especially across northern New York, but instability is rather limited for any severe threat. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.5 to 1.25 inches of rainfall, with the highest amounts seen across the Adirondacks and the spine of the Greens. Winds will be rather breezy, especially Wednesday evening as a low-level jet moves overhead especially across Vermont and Lake Champlain with gusts between 20 to 25mph. Temperatures tomorrow will be on the cool side, with daytime high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to low 60s as cool maritime air is ushered in from southeasterly flow. Overnight lows Wednesday night will be on the milder side due to increased cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...An upper level trough will slide into the forecast area on Thursday, bringing more precipitation in two parts. First, a warm front is expected to be crossing the area Thursday morning, bringing 50-80% chances of precipitation with highest probability of rain in the Champlain Valley and east. Low topped thunderstorms are still possible, mainly for the St. Lawrence Valley, as models are projecting up to 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE across northern New York Thursday. Modeled precipitable water values drop throughout the day Thursday, decreasing PoPs into the afternoon. However, a cold front will sweep through as well, bringing a renewed chance of precipitation later in the day. Total additional precipitation will be around 0.10-0.50 inches. The day should start out slightly gusty as well out of the south, but winds will decrease throughout the day, turning more westerly by Thursday evening. West of the Greens, the warm front may allow temperatures to climb slightly above seasonal averages in the upper 60s to lower 70s, though areas east of the Greens may remain closer to climatological normals in the 60s. Thursday night and Friday may see some light lingering and wrap- around showers. PoPs drop off quickly Thursday evening, but there is still about 20-40% chance of some showers Thursday night into Friday morning. Lows will take a hit in the Adirondacks Thursday night, dropping into the 40s, otherwise lows in the 50s are expected for most elsewhere. Friday, temperatures will be around seasonable in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...After light lingering and wrap- around showers in eastern Vermont taper off Friday, high pressure will move in to replace the previous upper low, and we begin another extended stretch of drier weather. Temperatures will generally be slightly average with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Fog formation continues to be a possibility each night under light boundary layer winds and clearing skies. Next chance of precipitation will be early to mid next week with models showing discrepancies of timing of a cold front. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the first half of the forecast period, with conditions gradually deteriorating to MVFR thereafter. Showers already overspreading the region at this hour, but visibility is generally remaining unrestricted and ceilings AOA 3500 ft. First round of showers will push eastward over mainly northern/central portions of the region through 15z, then expect a brief break in precipitation. Ceilings gradually lowering to 3500-4500 ft through the daylight hours. More widespread precipitation moves in from southwest to northeast after 22z Wed and continues through the remainder of the TAF period; expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities to prevail as this rain affects the terminals. Winds will generally south/southeast between 6-12 kt throughout the TAF period, with some gusts around of 15 to 20 kt possible, mainly after 14z Wed. LLWS expected through 12z at KMSS early in the period, and then again at all northern NY terminals toward 04z onward as a low level jet moves through the region. Outlook... Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Hastings/Kremer SHORT TERM...Storm LONG TERM...Storm AVIATION...Hastings