738
FXUS61 KBTV 240234
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1034 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our east will keep mainly dry conditions
in place through Tuesday.  The next chances for rain comes
Wednesday through Thursday as a series of fronts move through,
bringing a quarter to a half inch of rain to the area. Drier
weather then returns for the end of the week. Temperatures will
remain near to slightly above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1034 PM EDT Monday...Made minor changes to temperatures
and sky cover with this update. Prevailing southeasterly flow
has supported clouds persisting near and west of Lake Champlain
and eastern Adirondacks, while the cloud deck also persists
along and east of the northern Greens and the St. Lawrence
Valley. Skies are now mainly clear elsewhere, resulting in
faster temperature decreases and patchy fog in sheltered
locations (already have seen this at the Adirondack Regional
Airport).

Previous Discussion...A ridge of high pressure will remain in
place to our east, which will continue to shield the majority of
rain showers over New York from progressing eastward into our
forecast area. We have seen some light showers through the day
today, but areas that have reported precipitation have only
reported a few hundredths of an inch. Any residual showers that
persist into this evening will also be light thanks to the dry
air under the ridge. The fog forecast for tonight is a little
tricky. Climatology would favor fog development, however some
clouds will persist and winds 5-15 knots just off the surface
should promote enough mixing to prevent the development of
widespread dense valley fog overnight. The forecast for Tuesday
is dry with temperatures just a few degrees warmer than today`s.
Given normal highs for today are in the mid upper 60s, our
forecast temps in the upper 60s to low 70s will be a few degrees
warmer than normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 PM EDT Monday...A showery and cool day is in store for
Wednesday as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes pivots
eastward towards Quebec and a frontal boundary pushes through the
region, bringing numerous showers Wednesday afternoon. In addition
to the showers, some breezy southerly flow is also expected, with
gusts between 15 to 25 mph possible. Temperatures will be quite
cool, with highs generally in the 60s and some spots in eastern
Vermont topping out in the upper 50s. Overnight lows Wednesday night
will be on the milder side given the showers and cloud cover, with
temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Monday...Despite the rather complex synoptic
pattern, model guidance continues to be in rather good agreement for
the later half of the week. The upper level trough will move across
the region, bringing additional showers Thursday as the associated
surface low and frontal boundary push eastward. An upper low across
the Mississippi Valley will interact with the developing tropical
system in the Gulf of Mexico, but these features and associated
moisture will stay to our south and remain separate from the trough
across the Northeast. Ridging looks to build in at the end of the
week through the weekend, which would bring another stretch of dry
weather to the region. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s to
low 70s for highs, with lows in the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Widespread VFR conditions are expected
throughout the TAF period, with a small chance of fog at SLK
around daybreak. Thinking is that with the pressure gradient
remaining overhead, we`ll see enough wind just off the surface
to prevent dense fog development at any of our TAF sites. The
prevailing southeasterly flow may induce some VFR ceilings
overnight at MPV which may lower to MVFR and perhaps some BR
after 08Z. Slightly greater chances of this occurring at EFK,
but confidence in IFR conditions is low. Winds will remain from
the south/southeast, except northeasterly at MSS, mainly 3 to 6
knots, then increasing to 6-11 knots after 12-14Z.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Duell/Kutikoff