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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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070 FXUS61 KBTV 140531 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 131 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving through the Great Lakes this afternoon will bring a period of showers and possibly thunderstorms to our region late tonight into Friday with localized stronger storms possible in far southern Vermont early Friday afternoon. Cool and dry air filters in for the weekend, but by Monday, warm and moist air will shift back into the region. Temperatures warming into the upper 80s to mid 90s is expected by the middle of next week. In conjunction with high dewpoints and warm overnight conditions, heat impacts are likely next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 122 AM EDT Friday...It`s been a busy start on the night with line of showers and storms producing 45 to 55 mph gusts across northern New York. There are likely embedded areas that had higher gusts given the numerous trees reported down near and north of Route 11. The line has decayed, but its outflow is still propagating east and producing gusts up to 40 mph as it is currently crossing Lake Champlain. Made quick updates to follow the line and amend TAFs, but overall keeping track of the line and its impact as opposed to major forecast adjustments. Previous Discussion...The forecast remains on track for tonight through Friday night with the main feature of interest being a cold front currently moving through the Great Lakes region. CAMs have been very consistent showing showers and embedded thunder associated with the front won`t move into the St. Lawrence Valley until close to midnight, then become fragmented and scattered as it moves eastward through the remainder of the night into Friday morning. With the loss of daytime heating and precip arrival time, along with the best dynamics and cold pool shifting north of the region, the threat for strong storms is low during the overnight hours despite a strong low-level jet of 40-50kts moving across the region. As such, gusty winds are likely the biggest threat which will continue up to 25 mph in the broader valleys overnight with the potential for brief gusts greater than 35 mph along the frontal passage, mainly across northern New York. As the front shifts through Vermont during the daylight hours Friday, a short window will exist in the early to mid-afternoon hours for some stronger storms to develop across central and southern zones where up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE and about 40-45 knots of 0-6km shear may exist. As the previous forecaster mentioned, the intensity of storms will be conditional on clearing, and SPC`s depiction of a slight risk outlook south of our forecast area and a marginal risk across Rutland and Windsor Counties of Vermont continues to be reasonable. Any activity that does develop will wane after sunset with the loss of surface heating and the front shifting away from the region, and a quiet and cool night is on tap with lows falling into the 40s and 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 326 PM EDT Thursday...The weekend weather will be gorgeous, featuring highs in the 60s and 70s, and low humidity. There will also be abundant sunshine and relatively light winds. Clear skies and calm winds overnight will allow temperatures to drop quickly. Lows Saturday night will mostly be in the 40s, but temperatures should reach the 30s in the coldest hollows. Enjoy the cooler weather while it lasts because significant heat will build in next week. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 326 PM EDT Thursday...The first major heat event of the year looks to occur next week, starting Tuesday and continuing for the rest of the week. High temperatures above 90 degrees and increasing humidity will likely cause apparent temperatures to be well in the 90s, particularly in the broad valleys. The region will be on the northern periphery of an unusually strong ridge. Some model guidance brings the center of it to 600 dm at 500 mb. Southwest flow will prevent any cooling marine impacts from the Atlantic and increased humidity will help lows stay elevated overnight. Temperatures in the valleys will likely not fall out of the 70s Tuesday night onward, preventing much overnight relief from the heat. While there is high confidence of very warm temperatures, the exact magnitude of the heat is still uncertain. It looks like there will be a couple of shortwaves that will ride along the top of the ridge. With sufficient instability from the airmass, it would not take much to initiate some convection to keep afternoon temperatures a little lower. Also, with westerly flow aloft from being on the northern edge of the ridge, it is possible that debris from upstream convection over the Great Lakes could stream into the area provide some cloud cover. While this would limit high temperatures, it would also increase overnight lows. However, despite these uncertainties, there is high confidence in a significant heat event and the NBM seems very reasonable in giving an 80-90 percent probability of highs exceeding 90 in the broad valleys. However, the higher end probabilities where it gives the Burlington area a 40-50 percent chance of reaching 100 are likely unrealistic. Overall, this looks to be a relatively long- duration significant heat event and it would beneficial to take precautions early. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Decaying convection is producing a swath of rain over northern New York with gusty west to northwest winds ahead of the line. This feature will continue to decay over the next 3 to 6 hours as it heads east into Vermont. Visibility reductions have generally been minimal, though KSLK is presently at 1 3/4SM. The weakening trend should lessen probability of IFR in rain going forward. LLWS remains for locations ahead of the boundary with 40 knot winds at 2000 ft agl ahead of precipitation. Decaying convection should be east of the region about 11z. South to southwest winds will remain about 5 to 11 knots with gusts 15 to 22 knots, and may be variable at times due to outflow. After 15z, a frontal boundary will approach KMSS as it quickly descends southeast. A few showers will likely pop up in advance of the front, especially near KRUT. A quick transition from south to southwest winds to northwest is expected. Coverage of showers and storms appears low enough that VCSH is mentioned for now. Beyond 00z, winds will become 5 knots or less and trending northerly or terrain driven with clearing skies. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... As of 326 PM EDT Thursday...A brief period of wind gusts up to 25 knots is expected across the broad lake waters tonight prompting the issuance of a lake wind advisory. Waves will likely build to 1 to 3 feet, and caution is urged for small craft venturing out overnight. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Haynes MARINE...Lahiff