999
FXUS61 KBTV 270730
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to produce scattered showers this
morning across the region, before drier weather with increasing
amounts of sunshine returns by this afternoon. Temperatures
will only warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s with northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph. A cool and clear night with some patchy
valley fog is anticipated tonight, before a beautiful Friday is
expected with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures.
Unsettled weather returns on Saturday afternoon into Sunday,
along with breezy south winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Surface analysis places cold frnt
along the International Border this morning with scattered
showers along this boundary. As this front drops south this
morning, expect areas of scattered showers to prevail from
northern NY into central/northern VT, with greatest
concentration and highest qpf acrs the dacks into the northern
VT mtns. A relatively strong area of high pres for late June wl
continue to build southeast this aftn into Friday with much
cooler and drier air developing on brisk north/northwest winds
this aftn. As mixing develops this wl cause sfc dwpts to drop
back into the 40s with increasing amounts of sunshine this aftn.
As 1028mb high pres settles directly overhead by 12z Friday,
expect mostly clear skies tonight with light north winds under 5
knots. Given these conditions and recent rainfall, anticipate
some localized patchy fog, especially where cross over values
are reaches, such as the northern Dack valleys and parts of the
CT River Valley. Some uncertainty in fog/br coverage over
central/northern VT, due to gradient. Also, a cool night is
anticipated with lows mid 30s SLK to upper 40s/lower 50s CPV.
Would not be surprised to see some patchy frost near SLK. Friday
wl feature plenty of sunshine with just some fair wx cumulus
acrs the trrn with temps warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s
with very low humidity values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 PM EDT Wednesday...Dry conditions with seasonably mild
temperatures are expected Friday; it will be a fantastic day to
enjoy the outdoors with highs in the low/mid 70s and only some
building cirrus clouds late in the day. Overnight, clouds increase
and lower ahead of the next system with shower chances increasing
over the St Lawrence Valley. With clouds and southerly flow
increasing, temperatures will be warmer than Thursday night with
lows in the mid/upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 342 PM EDT Wednesday...A moderately strong area of low pressure
is expected to move through eastern Canada Saturday through early
Sunday bringing a fairly robust cold front with it. Winds will
noticeably increase Saturday with gusts 20-30 mph, especially in the
northern Champlain Valley, due to projected gradients. Expected
evolution of this system is for a pre frontal wave to form bringing
periods of showers Saturday with a stronger more consistent period
likely Saturday evening into the overnight hours. With ample
moisture transport, PWATs above 1.5", periods of moderate to heavy
rain and embedded thunderstorms are probable. However, flow pattern
aloft will promote faster system speed limiting the overall period
of rainfall. As such, maintained less than a 10% for flash flooding
concurring with WPC`s outlook of a marginal risk of flash flooding.

Behind the front, shower chances linger mainly over terrain and
upslope areas. These chances will diminish through Sunday with a dry
period and return of high pressure heavily favored for early next
week with a marked warming trend and highs running 5-8 degrees above
seasonal averages generally in the mid 80s. Models depict the next
period of precipitation beginning around midweek with the next
system approaching from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Crntly VFR conditions at all sites except
MVFR cigs at SLK with periods of light rain showers. These
showers will slowly exit our terminal sites by 12z Thursday, but
as winds shift to the northwest expect some lowering cigs toward
MVFR at many sites. A period of blocked flow near sunrise could
produce localized IFR conditions at BTV for an hour or two, but
probability and confidence is too low attm to mention in TAF at
BTV. Otherwise, higher confidence of IFR CIGS associated with
upslope flow is expected at SLK, so have utilized tempo`s to
indicate this potential. Otherwise, CIGS become VFR with
clearing skies by 16z today with northwest winds 5 to 15 knots.
Tonight winds become light north/northwest under 5 knots with
some patchy fog possible toward 06z at SLK.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Taber