851
FXUS61 KBTV 141931
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A gorgeous weekend is in store with high temperatures in the 60s and
70s and low humidity. This will be short-lived as a long-duration
heat event moves in next week. Combined with high humidity, it will
cause heat indexes to approach 100 degrees. Warm overnight lows will
prevent any nighttime relief so heat related impacts will occur.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Friday...A couple showers will develop later this
afternoon in southern Vermont and there is the chance of an isolated
severe storm. However, shower development has been unimpressive this
afternoon so far and the coverage will likely be more limited than
previously expected. The cold front responsible for these showers is
currently tracking its way southeast and it should be out of the
region this evening. Cooler and drier weather will move in behind
this front. Therefore, lows should fall into the 40s and 50s
tonight. Some boundary layer winds will continue so any fog
formation is unlikely. Skies will clear out tonight and the day
tomorrow should be be basically cloudless. Highs will be in the 60s
and low 70s with low humidity. Winds will go calm tomorrow night and
this will lead to efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures will
fall into the 40s across the region but they should fall into the
mid to upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the Adirondacks and
Northeast Kingdom. Enjoy the cooler weather because a long-duration
heat event will occur next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Friday...We`ve arranged a great day for all the
Fathers in our CWA Sunday. QPF forecasts are calling for no more
than trace in Northern New York. It`s possible we might see a stray
cloudburst, as shown with our widespread 10-15% pops. Temperatures
will be pleasant as well with valley locations reaching into the mid
to upper 70s. This should all provide for a wonderful weekend prior
to the heat building in starting Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Friday...A strong heat dome will build in next week,
bringing the most severe heat wave to hit Vermont and Northern New
York in a few years. Models are in good agreement that 500mb heights
will approach 600Dm allowing temperatures to soar into the mid-80s
by Monday and the mid-90s Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. At this
point, we can`t rule out reaching triple digits one of these days.
On the other hand, there are model solutions that show the
development of ridge runner thunderstorms developing which would of
course increase cloud cover and decrease temperatures. With that
said, even if our temperatures underperform the forecast we will
still experience a major heat event. Using our experimental Heat
Risk products, almost our entire CWA is reaching Major or Extreme
risk from Tuesday through Thursday. Please take time this weekend to
prepare for the threat by rescheduling outdoor activities, locating
cooling centers, ensuring you have a hydration plan.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions should mostly persist
through the period. There is the chance that either RUT or MPV
sees a shower that is heavy enough to briefly lower visibilities
to MVFR. Other than that, there will be some high clouds and
scattered lower clouds today that will dissipate tonight,
leading to clear skies tomorrow. A cold front is pushing through
the region from northwest to southeast this afternoon and
evening. Behind it, winds will shift from southerly to
northwesterly if they have not already. LLWS is currently not a
concern.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 92

June 19:
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 93
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 94
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 92
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 97
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92


Record Low Temperatures:

June 16:
KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 34


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 69

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 70
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 64

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Myskowski
CLIMATE...Team BTV