Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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283 FXUS61 KBTV 190729 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 329 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will remain the theme. On Friday, a backdoor front will shift southwest. It could produce a handful of light showers, mainly over Vermont. Weather conditions will become dry once again heading into next week, but with more seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and lower 40s to lower 50s at night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...A diffuse upper low is just south of the region, which has brought greater cloud cover slowing fog formation and slightly impacting radiational cooling. This upper low will meander back to the southeast where it will become more organized and result in a more cohesive surface low well off the Atlantic coastline. So, there`s no real change to report. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s once more this afternoon and fall back into the 50s to lower 60s at night, with a few spot 40s across some of our cool hollows with just a bit of fog developing in favored locations. We`re still on track for the backdoor front and a narrow tongue of moisture to support isolated to locally scattered precipitation Friday afternoon with marginal 100-250 J/kg instability. Convection will be shallow and will struggle to form cloud ice. So no thunder is present in the forecast. Precipitation, if any, will wane with the sunset. Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...Influence from the offshore low will linger Friday night into Saturday with isolated to scattered showers mainly for southern Vermont. A few sprinkles will be possible across central Vermont Friday night and Saturday afternoon, but no appreciable chance of meaningful rainfall. More noticeably, the high temperatures Saturday will trend back to seasonal averages in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure is highly favored to return late Saturday through the beginning of next week with dry conditions expected. However, with easterly surface flow associated with the lingering offshore low, temperatures are not expected to rebound. Highs in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees are likely to persist through much of next week with cooler lows mainly in the 40s. By midweek, there are continued indications of a pattern shift with an amplified low potentially riding up the backside of the upper level ridge as early as Tuesday. Blended model guidance shows a more progressive pattern trying to move the ridge. However, blocking patterns are notoriously stubborn, so it should take more time to beat down the upper ridge. Therefore, edged the forecast more towards deterministic models which better highlight the conceptual model of a slower onset of rain. With a slower onset, jet energy will most likely exit northward before a front can sweep through the North Country indicating a weakening of surface features over time. Kept slight chances of rain mainly Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble/deterministic/blended guidance become aligned by Wednesday night into late next week with another system moving into the backside of the ridge. This system should have more success in moving into the North Country, thus favored at least scattered showers returning. It should be noted that model guidance keeps the rex blocking pattern over eastern Canada, so there is no guarantee that there couldn`t be a more westward placement of this persistent feature that would keep conditions drier and warmer over the North Country. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are present, with patchy fog starting to form, but a bit more slowly than the last several nights due to high clouds about 15000-20000 ft agl. Still expecting fog to form across favored valleys and indicate LIFR to IFR conditions for KMSS/KSLK/KMPV/KEFK through about 11z-13z. Otherwise, quiet weather with north to northeast winds around 5 knots and few clouds that trend light or terrain driven beyond 00z Friday. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Haynes