105
FXUS61 KBTV 311743
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
143 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After another chilly start this morning, we`ll see a steady warming
trend through the weekend and into early next week. High pressure
will keep the weather dry for the next several days. Our next best
chance of rain doesn`t arrive until Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...Forecast remains very much on track.
Other than some minor tweaks to bring the hourly temperatures
and dew points up to date with current obs, noted the thin high
clouds streaming south from Quebec. This is a result of the
upper low over Gulf of St Lawrence. Otherwise, with plentiful
sunshine and dew points in the mid 30s to low 40s, get outside
and enjoy if you can!

Previous discussion...Our quiet weather will continue through
the rest of this week as high pressure settles over the region.
Mid/high clouds currently seen across much of central Quebec
will spread southward through the day, bringing us at least a
period of filtered sunshine today. Still, expect today`s highs
to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, in the upper
60s to low/mid 70s. Skies will clear again tonight, though it`s
not looking quite as cool as the past couple of nights. Still,
the usual cold prone locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast
Kingdom will get down into the upper 30s, with low 40s to low
50s expected elsewhere. Then we`ll have a beautiful start to the
weekend with abundant sunshine expected for Saturday. Highs
will top out in the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 AM EDT Friday...Deep layer ridging continues to establish
itself across the region Saturday night but the latest trends show a
decreasing in the amplitude of the upper level ridge. This should
allow for some moisture, in the form of cloud cover, to move over
the region towards daybreak on Sunday. Given these trends, we have
lowered highs slightly on Sunday and increased low temperatures
Saturday night and Sunday night by a degree or two. The changes
remain minor and any chances for showers will be held at bay given
the subsidence associated with the upper level ridge. Overall, we`ve
got a beautiful weekend on tap for the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 309 AM EDT Friday...The longwave pattern becomes more amplified
on Monday which should help usher in some lower level moisture in
addition to warmer temperatures. While subsidence should prevent any
showers for the first half of the week, it`s looking increasingly
likely that the influx of low level moisture will likely support
scattered fair weather cumulus clouds in the later morning and
afternoon hours. This may be just enough to stunt temperatures. The
latest ensemble guidance has trended slightly cooler with highs in
the mid 80s compared to the upper 80s they were showing this time
yesterday as a result. Overall, the air mass is expected to be
stagnant but we could see afternoon mixing each afternoon which
could create some breezes but nothing likely over 15 mph. Rain
chances will increase for the second half of the week but details
remain very fuzzy as a closed low pressure system over the North
Atlantic is expected to slowly break down which could delay the
departure of the upper level ridge and thus delay rainfall. In the
meantime, enjoy some partly to mostly sunny skies coupled with
seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions with dry weather will prevail
through the TAF period. A mid/high deck 15-20 kft during the
daylight hours will become clear overnight tonight. Northwest
winds with gusts up to 18-22 kt this afternoon will subside to
light and variable after 00z Saturday before increasing to 10-15
kt after 12z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Chai/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Chai