988
FXUS61 KBTV 251942
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
342 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a day of showery weather, more widespread precipitation will
move through later tonight into Thursday, with drier weather
returning for the weekend. After today, temperatures will be rather
seasonable for the remainder of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...After a round of showers this morning
that broke the dry stretch across the region, a lull in
precipitation can be seen this afternoon. The upper trough centered
over Ontario will continue to dig into the Great Lakes, before
closing off and moving eastward along the international border. This
feature, along with more favorable moisture and dynamics will bring
more widespread showers to the region this evening, but especially
during the overnight hours. A frontal boundary moving through the
region will be the driving feature for showers on Thursday. With
PWAT values near 1.5 inches, some heavier downpours will be possible
during the day tomorrow. Expected rainfall totals will generally be
1-2 inches with some locally higher amounts in spots that see
several rounds of heavier showers. Some ponding in poor drainage
areas may be possible, but the rainfall amounts should be quiet
manageable given the dry antecedent conditions. Precipitation
will come to an end Thursday night in the wake of the cold front
as drier air quickly moves in, although some lingering moisture
may be enough for a few isolated showers given the proximity to
the upper low.

 In addition to the precipitation, some breezy conditions can be
expected this evening and possibly overnight hours, especially
with the current lull in precipitation. A Lake Wind Advisory has
been issued for Lake Champlain for this evening and the
overnight hours. As more widespread rainfall begins to move in,
the mixing potential will become more limited, and by tomorrow
the winds will abate and becoming more westerly behind the cold
front. Temperatures tonight will be mild with the precipitation
and overcast skies, with lows generally in the 50s. Tomorrow
will be a few degrees warmer than today for most of the forecast
area with temperatures in the 60s to even some low 70s in the
St. Lawrence Valley, although eastern Vermont will remain cool
again in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...As low pressure pulls away into Atlantic
Canada Friday, some wrap around moisture and northwesterly flow
could produce a few light, insignificant showers in the Northeast
Kingdom. Have in PoPs up to 15-25%. Otherwise, dry weather with
potential lingering low clouds are expected throughout the day.
Highs are expected to increase slightly from Thursday into the mid
60s to lower 70s, still quite close to seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure is expected to build into
the region this weekend into early next week. This will allow
temperatures to sit slightly above climatological normals through
Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s
to mid 50s. Dry weather will also be the theme under high pressure
through about Tuesday. Sunday looks to be the warmest and sunniest
day of the period. Each night under the high pressure and light
winds, there is the potential for some patchy valley fog, but this
could depend on each night`s sky cover.

Models are coming into better agreement on a cold front producing
our next round of precipitation on or around Tuesday night (30-50%
chance of rainfall), though the potential for a slower arrival of
rain exists with some chances on Wednesday (20-40% chance of
rainfall). Ensembles are indicating there is still a relatively low
chance of 24 hour precip totals over a half an inch. This cold front
will also drop temperatures somewhat dramatically with highs
Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Wednesday night
potentially in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Currently a mix of VFR and MVFR
conditions across terminals this afternoon. After the showers
this morning, there is currently a lull in precipitation,
although more widespread precipitation is expected to move in
around 00Z and continue through most of the forecast period.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected with this rainfall,
which will impact all terminals. Some lower MVFR and even IFR
ceilings are possible towards the end of the TAF period, with
the greatest chances of IFR at KSLK and KMPV. Winds will
generally be from the south/southeast between 6 to 12 kts, with
gusts between 15 to 25 knots possible. Some LLWS will be a
concern at most northern New York terminals and KRUT as a low
level jet moves through the region.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for this evening into early
tomorrow morning with strong south to southeasterly winds
between 15 to 25 knots expected, with wave heights between 3-5
feet expected on the broad waters. Winds will begin to abate
tomorrow, becoming more westerly between 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
MARINE...