869
FXUS61 KBTV 220821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern will persist into the beginning of next week,
with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There is the
potential for strong to severe storms Sunday as a cold front moves
through. These storms will also contain heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Saturday...Elevated convection is beginning to
develop tonight due to a weak shortwave passing into the region.
These showers will continue into the day today as a warm front makes
its way north across the region. Isolated flash flooding is possible
if multiple storms hit the same area, but the threat is low. A few
of these storms could contain lightning but there is not a severe
threat. The front passes north of the international border Saturday
night and there should be somewhat of a lull in the action,
particularly over southern Vermont. The front looks to stall just
north of the international border Saturday night into Sunday, and it
will produce a narrow area of very heavy rainfall. Now that
confidence has increased that it will stall north of border, the
flooding threat in the region has diminished. However, with the
front to the north on Sunday, the region will get into the warm
sector of the storm. This has caused the severe threat on Sunday to
increase. Abundant deep layer shear will be in place and there
should be enough sunshine for instability to develop. CAPE looks to
reach between 1000-1500 J/KG though there is a possibility that it
exceeds those values. It will rely on any convective debris to move
out Sunday morning, so lingering clouds could dampen the risk a
little. There will also be very strong low- level helicity, and an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. However, the main threats will
be strong winds and hail. There is also a flash flooding risk with
these storms, given high PWATs and very deep warm cloud layers.
However, fast storm motion will help keep the risk localized to
areas that receive multiple storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EDT Saturday...Thunderstorms will diminish Sunday night
as the cold front crosses the region and instability wanes. However,
showers will likely persist through much of the overnight,
especially over the higher terrain as flow turns to the northwest.
The upper trough will swing overhead on Monday, so expect ample
cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers through much of the
day. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible, as well. Highs will
be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, but with cloudy skies and breezy
northwest winds, it may feel a little on the cool side. Showers will
wind down Monday night and skies will clear from west to east as the
upper trough departs. Lows will be in the 50s to around 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday will be dry as ridging briefly
builds over the area. The break will be short-lived though as a cold
frontal passage will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region on Wednesday. Some storms could be on
the strong side given CAPE values of 750 to 1200+ J/kg and 0-6km
shear of 30-40kt, but there`s some evidence on model soundings that
there could be a capping inversion around for a good part of the
day. Still, trends will need to be watched as we draw closer to the
middle of next week. Much drier air will work in behind the cold
front, so expect a more prolonged dry spell for the end of next
week. Highs will be back up into the mid and upper 80s ahead of the
front, but then should cool back down into the 70s to around 80F for
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...A warm front will slowly pass through the
region tonight and tomorrow, bringing showers and low ceilings.
After the front passes to the north tomorrow night, ceilings
should increase a little. Ceilings should drop to MVFR or lower
everywhere by tomorrow morning. IFR ceilings are a possibility
at any terminals, but they are most likely at MPV, SLK, EFK and
RUT. Showers could briefly lower visibilities to MVFR at any
terminal. One or two of these showers could contain embedded
thunder but the probability of one of these thunderstorms
hitting a specific terminal is low. Ceilings should rise
slightly during the day tomorrow with diurnal heating, but dense
cloud cover and the frontal boundary will prevent much
improvement. Improvement will likely not be widespread until the
front lifts all the way to the north tomorrow night. WInds will
be very light during this period and LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski