Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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929 FXUS61 KBUF 112334 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 734 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Extensive cloud cover across the region will gradually erode through this evening. High pressure will build across the region, bringing dry weather which will last tonight through most of Thursday. A cold front will bring another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday night through a portion of Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Residual low level moisture will be tough to clear out tonight...as high pressure with light winds and little mixing being partly responsible for the lack of significant improvement. While some areas will clear out for awhile...that may just lend itself to some stratus redeveloping late. Mid level clouds will then roll in from the west towards daybreak... as a robust shortwave will take aim on the region from the Upper Great Lakes. While general high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday... the aforementioned shortwave will move through with some mid level clouds and possibly an isolated shower or two. Otherwise it will be milder day with temperatures FINALLY returning to the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... On Thursday our area will be situated within the deepening southwesterly flow in between high pressure anchored off the east coast...and a mid-level trough/associated area of low pressure sliding across the Upper Lakes and central Ontario Province to western Quebec. While the cold front associated with this system will remain well to our west through the day...a weak leading shortwave impulse and warm frontal segment out ahead of this system will slide across our region. This may bring some widely scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon...with the greatest chances of these found across the counties bordering Lake Ontario where the best combination of moisture...lift...and instability will come into play. Outside of these the day will just be dry...notably warmer...and increasingly breezy as the southwesterly flow across our region ramps up. Highs will mostly range in the lower to mid 80s...with the warmest readings (upper 80s) found near Dansville...and the coolest temps immediately northeast of Lake Erie due to the stiffening southwesterly breeze off that lake...which may gust to 30-35 mph at times. Thursday night and very early Friday the core of the mid-level trough and the attendant surface low will eject northeastward across Quebec Province...while pivoting its trailing cold front across our region. In the spatial and temporal senses the best overall chances for any associated showers and embedded storms will lie near Lake Ontario and across the North Country Thursday evening...with this potential then fading through the rest of the night and with increasing southeastward extent as instability wanes and the frontal boundary becomes increasingly estranged from its departing mid-level support. Otherwise...lows will largely be in the lower to mid 60s. On Friday the main cold front will slide off to our southeast... with high pressure and drier air building eastward into our region in its wake. With the guidance continuing to trend toward the above happening more quickly...any convection associated with the front should be faster to exit our region during the morning...leaving behind a largely dry afternoon. The one possible exception to this will be across the North Country and Saint Lawrence Valley...where the approach and passage of a secondary shortwave trough/weak cold front could produce a few more widely scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the cooler and drier airmass building in behind the front will result in highs ranging through the 70s. The increasingly expansive surface ridge will then strengthen as it builds across our region Friday night...bringing an end to any spotty convection across the North Country and leading to a quiet and tranquil night otherwise. With good radiational cooling conditions in place...lows will settle back into the upper 40s across the North Country and interior of the Southern Tier...and into the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper level trough responsible for the cooler weather earlier this week will exit the Northeast Saturday, while ridging will advance and build east across the Great lakes Sunday through Tuesday. While the ridge builds east across the region, a short wave trough will ripple across the top of the ridge Monday. Overall with the exiting trough followed by the ridge building east, surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Saturday morning will slide southeast towards the Atlantic Coast by Monday morning. While this pattern will support dry weather throughout the weekend, it will also support warm and moist Gulf of Mexico air to filter in across the area supporting temperatures to surge above normal for mid June. The aforementioned shortwave trough rippling across the top of the ridge across the Great Lakes, will support a surface low well to the north across northern Ontario and Quebec. Extending southward from the low will be a pair of fronts to slide east across the eastern Great Lakes. This far out, timing and placement continues to be in question and therefore have slight chance to low end chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Despite the frontal passages, temperatures will continue to be above average. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Most areas will experience VFR conditions tonight...but there will be some lingering MVFR cigs near KROC...and later some MVFR/IFR fog and stratus will likely redevelop over parts of the Srn Tier (ie. KJHW). VFR weather will then be found across the region on Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR. Thursday night and Friday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Friday night through Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will build across the Lower Great Lakes resulting in light winds which will last through Wednesday night. A cold front will then move across the Lower Great Lakes late Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front Thursday, with winds remaining elevated through Friday. This will bring choppy conditions to both lakes. High pressure will then build back across the waters with light winds and generally favorable boating conditions during the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Apffel