266
FXUS61 KBUF 231452
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1052 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of warm and humid weather today, though a cold front
will slide across the area this afternoon with fairly widespread
showers and drenching thunderstorms. In the wake of the front,
cooler and less humid air will spread across the area for the start
of the new work week, though this break will be brief. A roller
coaster in temperatures for the rest of the week as warm weather
will then return Tuesday and Wednesday before dipping back down
later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A potent upper level shortwave and associated deepening surface low
trekking across the central Great Lakes along the Canadian and
United States border. A pre-frontal trough will slide across the
area from west to east this morning with a band of gusty showers.
This will then be followed by the cold front later this afternoon.

Looking further into the details, instability will be present with
surface based CAPE forecast values to peak around 2000 J/kg,
especially this afternoon. Additionally, shear profiles will become
favorable with approximately 40 to 50 knots of effective shear,
especially east of the Genesee Valley. These factors combined, are
reason that SPC has maintained a Slight Risk for severe weather
across much of western and north central New York, highlighting the
areas inland from the lakes. Main threats today will be damaging
winds, with a lesser threat for large hail. An isolated can`t be
ruled out either. Additionally, there is the potential for heavy
rain provided the amount of moisture content in the atmosphere. On
the bright side, the convection should be tracking at a quick enough
pace that the flash flooding threat will be more limited.

The convection will continue into the early evening hours tonight as
the surface cold front exits east of the eastern Lake Ontario
region. Additionally, just to the north of the New York
State/Canadian border will lie a surface low. A passing shortwave
trough aloft tonight will support scattered showers to continue
across western and north central New York with the best chances
lying closer to the surface low across the North Country. In the
wake of the front tonight, sleeping conditions will be much improved
as humidity and temperatures drop. Lows tonight will range in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A potent mid-level shortwave and associated sfc low is advertised to
pass through the St. Lawrence Valley Monday morning. Given that
there will be some lingering moisture and lift from the passing
trough, showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will be possible
through Monday afternoon. Some gusty NNW winds will also be possible
on Monday as boundary layer flow increases with the passage of the
trough. Otherwise...the best part will be the relief from the
oppressive heat and humidity this past week. Highs on Monday will be
a solid 10F to 15F cooler areawide with low to mid 70s across the
region.

High pressure begins to build in at all levels Monday evening which
will bring an end to any lingering showers. All indications are that
dry weather will `likely` persist into the day Tuesday. A warm front
does approach the region late Tuesday afternoon and evening. We
might see a shower or an isolated thunderstorm by Tuesday night. A
better chance for showers and storms arrives by Wednesday as a cold
front nears the Lower Lakes.

After a brief cool down, summer warmth and humidity makes a returns
Tuesday and last into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will range from the
upper 70s to low/mid 80s. A few degrees warmer Wednesday with most
locales found in the 80s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in
another much more refreshing airmass into western and northcentral
NY for the latter part of the work week. This should result in
mainly dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs low to mid 70s
Thursday, then tacking on several degrees for Friday as airmass
starts to modify with surface high moving east of our area. Dew
points in the 50s will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late
June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances then
look to return as we head toward the first half of next weekend as
the next frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Today will be VERY active with showers and thunderstorms due to a
cold front crossing the area from west to east. Along and behind the
frontal boundary, CIGS will drop off to IFR and MVFR, generally
taking place after 15Z this morning.

MVFR and IFR conditions will continue into the first portion of the
evening hours as showers and thunderstorms taper off from west to
east. Then LIFR and IFR CIGS will form late tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
inland from the lakes.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing southwest winds will bring Small Craft Advisories to the
lake through today. Additionally today, a couple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible crossing both Lakes, which will
also bring the potential for locally strong winds and waves.

In the wake of the front this afternoon and evening, a shift from
southwesterly to northerly flow will support continued choppy
conditions to the lakes, bringing a round of Small Craft Advisory
conditions to Lake Ontario Monday.

High pressure builds in across both lakes Monday and lasts through
Tuesday, diminishing winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
         Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA
NEAR TERM...EAJ/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/JM
AVIATION...EAJ/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/TMA