Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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076 FXUS61 KBUF 200222 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1022 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night. While this will continue to favor fair warm weather...a mid level disturbance may generate some showers over the western counties on Saturday. Looking further down the road...cooler and more widespread unsettled weather will then return to the region for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend to the southeast across our region through Friday night. This will result in fair and warm weather prevailing through at least Friday evening...before an approaching disturbance brings a low chance of a shower or two to far southwestern New York by late Friday night. Some patchy fog is also likely to develop east and southeast of Lake Ontario overnight into early Friday morning...with the usual valley fog also expected to develop within the Southern Tier valleys. Lows tonight will generally range from the lower 50s across the interior of the Southern Tier/North Country to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere...with highs on Friday then expected to average within a degree or two of 80. Lows Friday night will then range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Heading into Saturday, a broad mid-level trough will lie across much of the western two-thirds of the CONUS, while a ridge continues to lie across the Northeast. With the aforementioned trough, a shortwave trough will be in the midst pivoting northeast across the western and central Great Lakes. With this the surface ridge in place across the Northeast throughout much of the week will weaken some Saturday and allow for some precipitation and afternoon thunderstorms to drop southeast across western New York. While it doesn`t look like a complete wash out, expect a few hundredths across the Niagara Frontier with the best location for rain across the southern Tier with a little over a tenth of an inch possible. Surface high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will then drop southeast across the Northeast into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday, supporting one more day of dry weather. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The pattern becomes more amplified next week with the eastern Great Lakes region under southwest flow between a trough centered across the Upper Mid-West and a ridge over New England. Unsettled weather is possible as moisture increases across the forecast area. The upper level ridge axis will shift eastward while a shortwave trough moves across the Upper Mid-West region Monday. There is low confidence in the place of low pressure ahead of the trough, however a southwest flow will likely increase moisture across the region Monday into Monday night. Shower chances increase from west to east by late Monday across western NY and across the entire region Monday night. Details become fuzzy Tuesday and on as certainty lowers with the evolution of another shortwave trough and the duration of a dry slot between systems. Looking at the ensemble means of the large scale pattern, the main trough should stay to the west of the forecast area, opening the door to increasing moisture and other organized systems moving from the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes region. Low to medium chances for showers continue Tuesday through Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible if favorable conditions come together. Temperatures remain slightly above normal next week with highs averaging in the low 70s across the lake plains to the upper 60s across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions with light winds will largely prevail through Friday. As has been the case for the past week or so...the main exception to this will be across the western Southern Tier where areas of early morning valley fog will support MVFR/IFR vsbys for a few hours at sites like KJHW and KELZ. There will also be some patchier early morning fog on Friday at KART/KFZY...and possibly even at KROC. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers over the western counties. Sunday...VFR, except for patchy early morning fog across the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Monday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers over the western counties. Tuesday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers. && .MARINE... High pressure will largely remain in control through the first half of the weekend...though a weakening disturbance could produce some scattered showers across eastern Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario on Saturday. Winds through this time will generally be light to modest with minimal wave action...with northerly to northeasterly winds much of the time through Friday followed by northeasterlies to easterlies on Saturday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...JJR/RSH MARINE...JJR