082
FXUS61 KBUF 240848
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
448 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers across across the areas south of Lake Ontario with
more coverage in shower activity east of Lake Ontario this morning
will continue today and pull east out of the area. Additionally,
cooler and less humid air will continue to spread into the area
today making for a much more comfortable start to the new work week.
Warm and humid conditions will return Tuesday and especially
Wednesday when a pair of frontal passages support showers and
potentially strong thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent mid-level shortwave crossing over the province of Ontario,
will support wrap around moisture across the area earl this morning.
This is currently supporting the showers across the area south of
Lake Ontario and the fuller coverage of showers east of Lake
Ontario. As the morning progresses and the shortwave passes through
the Saint Lawrence Valley this morning along with its associated
surface low, lingering moisture and lift will continue to support
showers this morning into this afternoon, mainly across the North
Country. Heading into this afternoon, diurnal effects will support a
few showers into thunderstorms, particularly east of the Genesee
Valley.

Additionally today, gusty northwest winds will continue due to the
passage of the shortwave trough before weakening by this evening.
Temperatures today will be noticeably cooler and less humid
conditions. Highs today will range in the low to mid 70s.

Surface high pressure will begin to build east into the lower Great
Lakes this evening through tonight, causing the showers to exit the
North Country. Clear skies and light winds will support ample
radiational cooling to occur and support lows to range in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The brief cool down ends Tuesday with a return to summer warmth and
humidity. A warm front is advertised to work through the region
Tuesday afternoon and evening. While coverage will `likely` be
limited...we still can`t rule out a shower or isolated thunderstorm.
A better chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to arrives
Wednesday with the cold front. Right now...guidance focuses storm
activity well inland from the lakes across the S. Tier, Finger Lakes
region, and ENE into North Central NY. Otherwise...highs both days
will be found in the 80s with dwpts climbing well into the 60s.

Behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday night a much cooler and
drier airmass will flood into the Lower Lakes by Thursday. Highs on
Thursday will only be in the upper 60s across the higher terrain to
low/mid 70s elsewhere.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slides overhead Thursday night and then moves off to
our east on Friday. Return flow on the western peripheral of the
ridge will once again pump in a much warmer airmass as we head into
the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also
increase beginning Friday night with the warm front, and then again
with the cold front on Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s, then even warm Saturday with solid 80s to near 90F
in spots.

A cool down begins to take place behind the cold front Saturday
night but we still could see some showers on Sunday. Dry weather
returns areawide by Monday as an expansive surface high builds into
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in
another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central
New York for the latter part of the work week. This should
result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to
mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with
surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s
will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will
return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system
approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal
passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend
days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers are currently spread across the areas south of
Lake Ontario, with fuller shower coverage across the areas east of
Lake Ontario. Overall, a conglomeration of flight conditions are
across the area, mainly due to CIGS averaging between 1500 and 2000
feet this morning. The lower CIGS will correlate with the shower
activity.

Showers will continue today, mainly from the Finger Lakes eastward
through the early afternoon. Additionally, a thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially across the North Country. This being said,
CIGS today will gradually improve to VFR as showers pull east out of
the area by this evening.

High pressure will spread east into the lower Great Lakes this
evening, causing clouds to clear out and VFR conditions to persist.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories include all of the nearshore waters due to
northwesterly flow across both lakes through much of today. Winds
and waves will begin to subside this evening as high pressure moves
into the Ohio Valley today through Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for NYZ001>003-
     007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ004>006.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ