328
FXUS61 KBUF 131447
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1047 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the area today...and in the process will
generate widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. In the wake
of the front drier weather will return on Monday night, along with
less humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very warm and humid airmass resides across the eastern Great Lakes
region today. An upper level trough over northern Ontario will move
east-northeast while an upper level ridge persists off the east
coast. Water vapor satellite products show a shortwave trough
over Ohio, and Gulf and Atlantic moisture converging across the
region late this morning. A cold front will slowly approach the
forecast area through this evening. Daytime heating and deep
moisture with dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in 1500-2000
J/kg of CAPE across the region this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front, with a focused area
of convection along a pre-frontal trough east of the Genesee River.
Forecast PWATS of 2"+ and mean RH% of 80%+ will support heavy rain
in any convection. Upwind propagation vectors are forecast to remain
weak across the region and training storms are possible. 1-hr FFG of
1.5-2.5" and 3-hr FFG of 2-2.5" extends from Allegany county to the
northern Finger Lakes region which could result in localized flash
flooding if training storms develop. FFG is slightly higher across
Oswego and Lewis county, however ingredients are there for training
storms. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the areas mentioned from
11 AM today through 5 AM Monday. Shear is rather modest with 20-
25kts of 0-6km bulk shear, but coupled with a very moist environment
may result in an isolated severe storm across the area today, mainly
especially east of the Genesee Valley. Temperatures will again reach
the mid to upper 80s across the lake plains and Genesee Valley
today. The combination of humidity and warm temperatures may result
in heat indices in the mid 90s.

Instability will wane into the evening hours and so will the severe
threat. Training showers and storms may be ongoing and the flash
flood threat will continue through the evening hours. Elsewhere,
deep moisture will be present as the cold front trudges through the
region and showers are possible overnight.

The upper level trough axis will move through the region with the
cold front finally exiting the eastern edge of the forecast area
Monday. There remains a corridor of deep moisture from the Ohio
Valley into New England, which keeps the chance for showers and
thunderstorms across interior portions of the forecast area. A
convergence zone may develop along the lake plains south of Lake
Ontario and there is a low chance of showers developing by
afternoon. Warm weather will continue however dewpoints will be
lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Building heights and surface high pressure will bring drier weather
Monday night through Tuesday night.

A fast moving shortwave trough will move from the northern Rockies
to the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture and
warmth will stream northward while a surface low moves across the
Great Lakes region. Wednesday will be a transition day with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid
conditions may warrant heat headlines beginning Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A humid (Mean PWATS 1.75") and a very warm airmass (surface
temperatures in the 80s) Thursday will be accompanied with showers
and thunderstorms upon a warm front...with additional lift for storm
development supported by the passage of a mid level shortwave
trough.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday night
through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front.

Surface high pressure and mostly zonal flow is possible across the
region this weekend. There has been some flip-flopping with guidance
for the weekend so confidence is low that it will be quiet and dry.
That being said, post-frontal conditions should result in
temperatures approaching normal (low 80s.)

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A slow-moving cold front will approach our region today and trigger
the development of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms (some
with locally heavy rainfall) between the late morning and early
evening hours. These may produce brief/localized reductions
(mainly in visibility) to MVFR or even IFR...with VFR conditions
otherwise prevailing.

Showers and storms are possible through tonight which may cause
flight restrictions at TAF sites, especially at KROC and KART.
Low-level moisture will pool across the region and stratus is
possible across interior Southern Tier and North Country late
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving cold front will then bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Special Marine Warnings
may be needed for locally strong winds. Winds will pick up a bit
ahead and with the front, but will still remain well below any
headline criteria.

Behind the front...winds will be fairly light tonight through
Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ003>006-008-013-014-
     021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/Thomas
AVIATION...AR/JJR/TMA
MARINE...AR/HSK/JJR/TMA