253
FXUS61 KBUF 181609
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1209 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control across much of New York and
northern New England keeping any shower activity associated with a
weak area of low pressure meandering northeast along the Mid
Atlantic and Jersey coastline off to our south and southeast through
the second half of the week. A weak backdoor cold front will then
cross the area from northeast to southwest toward the tail end of
the work week with an even stronger area of high pressure building
southwest across the area from eastern Canada keeping dry and only
slightly cooler conditions intact right through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue through Thursday across the forecast area.
The only exception to this is the very low potential for a isolated
shower along and just north of the NY/PA border this afternoon.
Light, widely scattered showers across northern PA are on the
very northern fringe of a broken shield of precip. These showers
are associated with a coastal sfc low along the NC/VA coast and
a mid/upper-level low over the central Appalachians.

Elsewhere today, further away from the NY/PA line, mid to high
clouds will be in place, thinning both through the day and from
south to north. Clouds will thin and showers move away from the
NY/PA border later as the mid/upper level low both weakens and
shifts northeast. Winds will remain light once again today with
speeds of around 5 mph expected. Temperatures will remain above
normal with afternoon highs in the low 70s to low 80s. With
thicker mid and high clouds in place further south, temperatures
will be a bit on the cooler side toward the NY/PA line and
warmer for the North Country where more sun is expected.

Tonight and Thursday, fair, dry weather will continue with the sfc
high to our northeast, extending across the region. Cloud cover will
continue to decrease through the day on Thursday. The exception to
that is some areas of morning low stratus across the Western
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Some patchy fog will also be
possible in both of these areas, but will also be dependent on
lingering high clouds. Winds pickup some on Thursday afternoon out
of the northeast, but should remain below 10 mph for most of the
area. Temperatures tonight will be in the low to upper 50s.
Afternoon temperatures on Thursday warm a few degrees from today`s
values for areas south of Lake Ontario with less cloud cover
expected. Thursday`s afternoon highs will be in the mid 70s to low
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pressure south of New England will move little during the
period. Deeper moisture associated with the coastal low will remain
east of the area, as a mid level ridge continues to hold over the
region. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor cold
front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast to
southwest Friday through Friday night.

Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday
which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area.
Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next
week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid-
West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into
the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend
down but be above normal through the Long Term period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected today through Thursday. Patchy valley
fog across the Western Southern Tier will be possible tonight,
lowering CIGs to IFR at times. Some additional fog will be possible
near KART, with the weak northeast flow tonight. All fog potential
will be dependent on cloud cover, currently expected to have at
least some mid to high clouds across portions of the area.

Winds remain light through Thursday out of the southeast to
northeast.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in control through the end of the work
week maintaining a weak pressure gradient and thus mainly light
winds less than 10 knots and negligible waves. This will also
promote a weak onshore flow to develop each afternoon, with weak
land breeze circulations dominating at night.

A weak backdoor cold front will cross the Lakes late in the week.
This will bring an uptick in the easterly flow for the upcoming
weekend, mainly across Lake Ontario. However, winds should remain
below 15 knots with wave heights remaining less than 2 feet (less
than 3 feet open waters) across the western half of Lake Ontario.
Negligible waves expected elsewhere.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HSK/TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JM