909
FXUS65 KBYZ 222026
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
226 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Through Monday night...

A shortwave trough at 500 mb will move east/southeastward over
southern Canada into the Dakotas tonight into Monday. The
shortwave trough will spread clouds into southern MT/northern WY
this evening into Monday morning. Some breaks in the clouds
should then develop Monday afternoon as the shortwave trough
departs. A few sprinkles are possible after midnight over most of
the area and then isolated showers are possible (15% chance)
mainly in southeast MT Monday morning to early afternoon.
Soundings show a relatively deeper moist layer in southeast MT and
hence the isolated shower chance there Monday morning.

The shortwave will also bring a surface cold front across the
area in the early morning hours Monday with winds turning
northwesterly in most areas. Winds will become breezy by late
morning with gusts to 25-30 mph and stay breezy through Monday
evening. Winds should decrease Monday night with the loss of solar
heating.

Low temperatures will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s tonight
and Monday night. High temperatures on Monday will mainly be in
the 70s. RMS

Tuesday through Sunday...

Benign weather will persist for much of the extended forecast
period. Warmer than normal temperatures associated with upper
ridging will be the main story. High temperatures will climb into
the mid 80s to low 90s, Wednesday and Thursday. Models are
hinting that a cold front may pass through the region, Thursday
afternoon. The result of this would be a slight cooldown for
Friday. Uncertainty increases for next weekend with some model
clusters showing 500 mb ridging dominating while other clusters
showing more of a 500 mb trough scenario. The NBM 10th to 90th
percentile of high temperatures at Billings ranges from the 50s to
the 80s Saturday and Sunday. Next chance of precipitation is
Sunday afternoon-evening at 15-20% if the trough scenario were to
occur. Matos/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Isolated showers are
possible (15% chance) in southeast MT on Monday from 12z to 18z
and east of KMLS through about 20z. Winds will become breezy
Monday morning with gusts to 20-26 kt, strongest in southeast MT,
then decrease Monday evening. There will be areas of mountain
obscuration Monday and in the Bighorn Mountains Monday evening.
RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/073 050/079 053/086 056/085 053/083 050/073 046/071
    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
LVM 044/072 044/081 049/086 052/084 048/083 044/074 040/070
    10/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 047/074 046/080 049/088 051/088 051/086 047/075 044/073
    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 049/072 047/078 052/088 055/087 054/086 052/074 046/072
    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 048/071 048/077 050/088 057/089 054/088 053/077 047/074
    02/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
BHK 046/071 043/078 048/086 053/087 051/085 050/075 043/071
    12/W    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
SHR 044/072 043/079 047/090 052/089 049/087 047/076 043/076
    01/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings