Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
100 FXUS65 KBYZ 181232 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 632 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .UPDATE... A Wind Advisory was added for the Livingston area for current and potential gusts to 60 mph. Lower confidence exists in the persistence of these higher gusts compared to surrounding zones as the overall pattern doesn`t favor continuous higher gusts. TS .DISCUSSION... Today through Thursday night... Earlier this evening a wave pushed through southeast MT bringing light precipitation and strong surface winds brought down from the low levels. Currently, the upper level low is over south- central MT and north- central WY bringing dry slotting to the east, while the central and western zones are receiving light to moderate rainfall. As this low slowly lifts north and east, CAMs have precipitation spreading east through the day and letting up into the overnight hours. Areas that have at least at least an additional inch of precipitation are generally west of Rosebud Co. Higher foothills and mountains north and west of Billings have at least a 50% chance of 2 inches. Biggest concern for this forecast is the strong winds. Winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere (50-60 mph) are predicted to reach the surface through the day today across much of the region. One thing that makes this forecast difficult is the opposing force of the ascent. Given the strong dynamics and placement of the low over south-central MT as well as the strong low level winds, this increased confidence in a high wind event. With this, a High Wind Warning had been issued for much of south-central MT. There is a possibility this could be extended eastward as low level winds shift north and east and subsidence sets in over SE MT. Will be something to reassess later today. With regards to snow today, freezing levels are forecasted to get down to around 9000 ft. Higher elevations (10,000 ft+) could see 12-18 inches of snow through this evening. With this, a Winter Storm warning has been issued for the Beartooth Absaroka Mountains. Localized areas as low as 7500 ft could see a few inches through the early morning. Use caution if you have outdoor or travel plans in the high country. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s today. For Thursday, dry and warmer conditions will dominate as westerly low takes place. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s. TS Friday through Tuesday... Pacific flow w/ near normal heights will persist Friday thru Monday. The general consensus among ensembles leans toward this being a mostly dry period of weather, but there is some uncertainty here. There are a couple of shortwaves embedded within the flow. The first Friday and Friday night may bring some showers (20-30% chance) along with a brief push of modest cold advection. The second wave Sunday night and Monday may do the same. That said, there are a few ensemble members (the least probable of cluster analyses) that show one or both of these waves being sharper and a bit wetter. Temperatures should be more or less seasonable (highs in 60s & 70s) for the third week of September. There is some confidence in a building ridge, and thus warmer and drier conditions, toward the middle of next week. We could see temps back near 80F. JKL && .AVIATION... There will be widespread impacts to aviation today. Rain and strong west winds will impact the region today. Heaviest precip will be west of Rosebud County, and reductions to MVFR are likely. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible. Strongest winds (gusts of 40-55 knots) are expected from KBIL westward. Mountains will be frequently obscured, with snow above 9,500 feet. Precipitation and wind will gradually diminish tonight as the dynamic weather system begins to depart to the northeast. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061 053/074 050/075 046/065 044/070 047/070 048/073 +/T 60/U 01/U 31/B 11/U 12/W 21/U LVM 060 044/072 042/073 039/065 038/070 041/068 041/072 +/T 50/U 01/B 21/B 11/U 13/W 21/U HDN 061 052/075 046/077 044/067 042/071 043/070 045/073 +/T 70/B 01/U 31/B 11/U 12/W 21/U MLS 064 055/072 049/076 046/064 044/068 045/069 046/070 7/T 71/N 00/U 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 4BQ 065 054/072 047/078 045/065 043/067 045/069 045/069 7/W 50/U 00/U 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B BHK 068 051/072 046/078 043/065 041/067 042/068 042/069 7/T 51/N 00/U 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B SHR 069 048/076 043/080 040/066 038/070 038/070 041/072 8/W 50/U 01/U 31/B 11/U 12/W 21/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 29>31-34-36-42-57-58-63-68-138-141-170-172-173-228-235. Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM MDT this afternoon FOR ZONE 65. Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 66. Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 67. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings