Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
916 FXUS65 KBYZ 181708 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 1108 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .UPDATE... It remains cool, overcast, and breezy across the region this morning. Temperatures as of 11 AM are in the mid-40s. Across higher elevations in the Absarokas, Pryor Range, and northern Bighorns, temps continue to hover around freezing. Showers and high-elevation snow showers continue to exist across the region and remain possible through the afternoon (30% chance). Hensley .DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday night... Summary: Cool, wet, and breezy conditions will continue today as the strong upper trough moves through. Expect widespread showers this morning to become more scattered this afternoon before tapering off this evening. Winds will also decrease this afternoon across the region. Areas along the immediate foothills could see a rain/snow mix early this morning, with all snow expected in the mountains. Wednesday will see warming temperatures with only low afternoon chances of precipitation (10-35% chance). Radar imagery early this morning shows widespread shower activity impacting the region. In the east, showers are quickly lifting northeast ahead of the approaching trough. Over western and central areas, showers are filling in from the northwest behind the passing trough. This more widespread activity will continue to push east through the morning hours today. Behind this activity, instability showers and weak thunderstorms look to form this afternoon (30-60% chance). With weak instability in place, any thunderstorms that develop look to remain garden variety. Along the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains and foothills, there looks to be a brief period of upslope flow this afternoon. This will likely (80-90% chance) bring a quick push of moderate precipitation to the area. Snow levels look to be around 7,000 feet during this time, so we are expecting all snow in the mountains through the day. Down in the town of Red Lodge, we are not expecting any accumulations of snow, but snow could be mixed in with the rain at times. Additional precipitation amounts, including this early morning activity, look to range from 0.05 inches to 0.75 inches (highest north of Billings and in the southwestern mountains). Outside of precipitation, temperatures will remain below normal today with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. Breezy winds gusting 15 to 35 mph this morning will gradually taper off from west to east this afternoon and evening as well. High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s tonight and upper 30s to lower 50s Wednesday night. Arends Thursday through Monday... Southwest flow will be over the area Thursday. This patter will work to warm temperatures and tamp down precipitation chances. A fairly weak Pacific trof moves into the area Thursday night through Friday. This system will bend some plains moisture into the area bringing a good chance for widespread precipitation to the forecast area on Friday. Probabilities for over a quarter of an inch of rain from Thursday night into Saturday morning range from 35% in the west to 75% along the eastern state line. Ridging builds in Saturday afternoon. With sunny skies and downslope winds will see temperatures climb into the 80s. With ridge remaining in place Sunday models push temperatures into the 90s across the area for the afternoon. Could be the warmest temperatures so far this year in many places, with probability of surpassing 95 degrees in Billings sitting at 30%. Southerly winds will also help pull low level moisture into the area for a hot and humid afternoon as currently forecast. Overall a good weekend to get outdoors, just plan for the hot/humid conditions. Chambers && .AVIATION... The weather system continues to affect all terminals through this afternoon, with rain showers and reductions to VIS/CIGS to MVFR/IFR. Conditions have deteriorated at KMLS this morning down to IFR and this will continue at times until 19Z. Then Precipitation should lighten, with CIGS rising to MVFR. Then, light rain will continue until 22Z. Conditions will improve to VFR at all terminals this evening. Fog development is possible (30%) tonight into tomorrow morning, so have included VCFG at all terminals. Fog should remain patchy, so no reductions in VIS or CIGS due to fog at this TAF issuance. A breezy northwest wind this morning/afternoon will subside late this afternoon/early this evening. Mountain obscuration will occur through this afternoon, improving this evening. Rowe && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 056 040/072 049/077 056/076 056/083 058/091 061/088 5/T 10/U 01/B 36/T 62/T 00/U 11/U LVM 057 033/069 038/074 048/078 049/083 052/089 054/085 6/T 41/U 01/B 26/T 42/T 01/U 11/N HDN 057 037/076 048/080 056/079 055/084 057/092 060/089 5/T 11/U 02/T 46/T 62/T 10/U 11/U MLS 053 037/073 050/078 057/075 056/080 057/088 062/087 9/W 11/U 12/W 56/T 73/W 10/U 10/U 4BQ 055 038/073 051/077 058/076 057/080 057/090 063/089 2/W 12/W 12/W 55/T 73/T 10/U 11/U BHK 054 036/071 048/075 055/073 055/079 054/087 061/088 6/T 21/U 12/W 55/T 73/T 10/U 11/U SHR 058 035/073 046/078 053/078 052/082 054/091 059/091 4/T 11/U 12/T 46/T 62/T 00/U 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 67. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings