091
FXUS65 KBYZ 221540
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
940 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.UPDATE...

Increased PoPs and the potential for thunder this afternoon, as a
result of the latest HREF run depicting a few showers and
thunderstorms east of a line from Harlowton to Sheridan.

Matos

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...

Thunderstorms, strong to severe at times were sliding east across
northern and eastern areas early this morning as a shortwave and
associated vorticity max move through the region. Hail, strong
winds and very heavy rainfall have been observed with the
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually move off
into the Dakotas through the morning hours. At the same time,
stratus and patchy fog were forming over central and eastern
areas. Expect the stratus/fog to linger into the morning,
gradually burning off.

Warmer conditions can be expected today with highs in the 80s
most places. Lingering cyclonic flow from an area of low pressure
crossing southern Canada may bring a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms (20% chance) to the southern mountains and
northeastern areas this afternoon. Sunday is expected to be hot,
with many locations forecast to reach the upper 90s to near 100
degrees as ridging builds overhead and 700 mb temperatures warm
towards 15-18 degrees C. Locations along the Yellowstone River
valley are most likely to hit 100 degrees (40-80% chance). A late
day shortwave and associated cold front will cross the area during
the evening hours bringing a wind shift to the northwest and some
high-based convection (15-30% chance, greatest over the north). STP


Monday through Friday..

Behind the shortwave and cold front Sunday evening, westerly flow
to weak ridging at times will bring temperatures in the 80s to 90s
through much of the coming week with mainly dry conditions.
Ensembles continue to prog a larger trough moving into the PNW mid
to late week, eventually lifting through the region by Thursday
or Friday. Cooler conditions with highs into the 70s and
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances (20-50%) are currently
forecast. STP

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible from K3HT to KSHR and east
this afternoon.

Matos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 085 058/098 062/090 058/085 057/091 060/088 057/073
    2/T 01/U    10/U    00/U    00/U    12/T    33/T
LVM 086 054/096 056/089 052/087 052/091 055/084 050/071
    1/U 01/N    11/N    00/U    01/U    13/T    44/T
HDN 085 058/101 060/093 056/087 056/093 059/090 055/075
    2/T 01/G    20/U    10/U    00/U    12/T    43/T
MLS 083 058/097 066/089 058/085 057/090 062/089 058/074
    2/T 10/U    20/U    10/U    10/U    11/U    52/T
4BQ 084 059/098 066/092 060/086 059/093 063/091 059/076
    2/T 00/U    10/U    10/U    01/U    11/U    32/T
BHK 082 055/093 063/089 056/085 053/087 058/087 057/077
    2/T 00/U    20/U    10/U    11/U    11/U    42/T
SHR 083 055/096 060/093 055/086 055/093 058/091 053/076
    2/T 10/U    10/U    10/U    00/U    11/U    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings