Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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663 FXCA20 KWBC 261904 PMDCA TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 304 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2024 FORECAST BULLETIN 26 JUN 2024 AT 1905 UTC: NOTE: DUE TO INTERNAL NETWORK ISSUES...SOME PRODUCTS IN OUR WEBSITE ARE NOT AVAILABLE AND MIGHT NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. AS SOON AS THE ISSUES ARE RESOLVED...THIS WILL BE EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN OUR MAIN WEBSITE. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE WILL INDUCE CIRCULATION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND ONSHORE FLOW WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE OROGRAPHY OF BOTH COUNTRIES. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED FROM A FAST MOVING KELVIN WAVE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...FROM SOUTHERN GUANACASTE PENINSULA IN COSTA RICA...TO THE GULF OF CHIRIQUI IN PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. FROM EAST HONDURAS...SOUTH INTO NICARAGUA..NORTH AND EAST COSTA RICA...INTO THE AZUERO PENINSULA IN PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE REST OF PANAMA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...DUE TO THE LESS FAVORABLE FLOW MOVING ONSHORE. RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEVELOPING CAG...SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTERACTING WITH THE REGION. ON THURSDAY...THE CAG CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...WHERE THE GENERALIZED CENTER IS EXPECTED OVER NICARAGUA. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WHERE LONG FETCH WILL FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WEST AZUERO PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CHIRIQUI REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. SOUTHWEST PANAMA INTO SOUTH GUANACASTE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. EL SALVADOR AND THE WEST GULF OF FONSECA REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE CAG. GUATEMALA...BELIZE...EAST HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...EAST COSTA RICA...AND CENTRAL PANAMA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CAG. ON FRIDAY...THE CAG CONTINUES MOVING ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVES NORTHWARD...CENTERED APPROXIMATELY OVER EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. LOW LEVEL JETS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CAG...WHERE BELIZE AND HONDURAS WILL BE LOCATED IN THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION...ONSHORE FLOW...LONG FETCH...AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION...AS SUCH...EAST EL SALVADOR...SOUTH HONDURAS...AND NORTHWEST NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM. WITH BELIZE BEING IN THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE LLJ...AS WELL AS ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTH NICARAGUA AND NORTHWEST COSTA RICA. GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 30-70MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CHIAPAS...GUATEMALA...AND EAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA...TO SOUTHERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA...THROUGH CHIAPAS...SOUTH VERACRUZ...AND EAST OAXACA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT THE PROPAGATION OF TROPICAL WAVES ALONG THE ITCZ TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT MJO EXPECTED IN THE REGION...HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE LOCALIZED WITH THE PASSING OF THE WAVES. ON WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN VENEZUELA...IN ADDITION TO THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER WEST COLOMBIA...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ...EXPECT GENERALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING SUPPORTED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON FRIDAY...CENTRAL VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...AS THIS REGION WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA WITH THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED PRECIPITATION WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE EJE VOLCANINO TRANSVERSAL AND THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WHERE GENERALIZED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN ADDITION...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS FORECAST TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25MM. ACOSTA...(WPC) $$