Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
178 FXUS61 KCAR 152222 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 622 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in this weekend then shift south of the area on Monday. The area will remain under the influence of high pressure through later next week. A cold front will approach from the NW by late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 6:22 PM Update: Satellite shows fair weather cumulus with the greatest coverage across Washington County. The cumulus will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating, but may take a bit longer in Washington County. A gusty northwest wind will diminish this evening, and with a very dry and cool air mass it will make for a cool night. In fact, some of our normally colder northwest valleys may drop down into the low to mid 30s by day break. The only change at this time was to add in a bit of late night river valley fog across the north. Otherwise, the forecast is in fine shape early this evening. Previous discussion: A surface 1026mb high pressure system slowly drifts east into New England tonight with gradually clearing skies. Winds will begin to relax across the area tonight and much cooler air is associated with this high. Modeled soundings show decent chance of decoupling tonight that will result in potentially patchy to areas of frost in the North Woods with mid 30s expected. Have hoisted a Frost Advisory for areas west of Route 11 and NW of Baxter State Park from 2am-6am tomorrow. Elsewhere, expecting lows generally 40-45F with warmest spots 45-47F along the Downeast coast. There could be some patchy river valley fog in the AM but confidence in that was a little low to add. Tomorrow the surface high moves overhead with beautiful sunshine expected and seasonable temperatures. Highs tomorrow top out in the low to mid 70s with light NW winds. Minimum RHs bottom out in the 30-35 percent range. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Temperatures will remain fairly cool Sunday night, but winds will switch to be more southerly. This will start the trend of increasing humidity ahead of the heat wave expected to start Tuesday. On Monday, the remains of a potential MCS will move across the area, keeping clouds across the area and bringing some showers. This will help keep things a cool on Monday and daytime highs will be seasonable. By Monday night, increasing humidity will keep temps from falling too far, so nighttime lows will be much closer to 60, a harbinger of what is to come. On Tuesday, daytime highs will rise into the 90s across most of the area. Downeast may see a short reprieve from the heat, since lingering clouds will keep temperatures low during the day. Heat indices will be in the 90s for most of the area and heat advisories may need to be considered for some of the area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... With strong ridging overhead and anomalous 500 hPa heights, temperatures will begin to increase Tuesday night and a heat wave is expected to last through at least Thursday. Confidence is high that this event will occur and that daytime highs on Wednesday will be record breaking for many locations. More importantly, nighttime temps will also be record high minimums, preventing much recovery from occurring over night. More specifics on records are included in the climate section below. Confidence is high on this event occurring and that Wednesday looks to be the hottest day, with overnight lows in the 70s, possibly even the mid 70s for some locations. NBM deterministic is running on the low side compared to the ensemble spread, so used the 75th percentile for highs, and 50th percentile for lows Tuesday through Thursday night. Thursday will cool down slightly, especially across the north, where an approaching cold front will generate thunderstorms during the day. However, the impact of cumulative days above 90F should not be underestimated and heat impacts will continue on Thursday. Cooler temperatures are expected on Friday, mainly across the north, with the post-frontal air mass. Some uncertainty remains at how far south the cool air will drop, so temps may be a little warmer for the Central Highlands and southward than currently forecast. By Saturday, model solutions diverge greatly, with GFS bringing a front through, with EC keeping high pressure over the region. Given this divergence in the model solutions, confidence in the forecast at the very end of the period is currently low. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: SCT-BKN VFR becoming SKC this evening. NW winds 5-15kt this evening becoming light and variable tonight. Tomorrow SKC or FEW150+ and NW winds 5-10kt. BCFG/BR possible at PQI tomorrow AM. SHORT TERM: Sunday night-Wednesday...VFR. W/SW wind 5-10kts through Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA through tomorrow. Winds less than 20kt and seas generally 2-3ft. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the duration of the short term. && .CLIMATE... June 19th High Temperature Records: (Forecast) Caribou (99)96 in 2020 Bangor (97)95 in 1995 Millinocket (98)95 in 2020 Houlton (97)95 in 2020 Frenchville (98)93 in 2020 June 20th Max Minimum Temperature Records: (Forecast) Caribou (76)68 in 1970 Bangor (72)72 in 1931 Millinocket (74)69 in 1923 Houlton (74)67 in 1976 Frenchville (74) 65 in 2016 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ001-003-004. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Sinko Short Term...LF Long Term...LF Aviation...CB/Sinko/LF Marine...CB/Sinko/LF Climate...Buster/Sinko