253
FXUS61 KCAR 111012
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
612 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper level low pressure will remain across the area today into
Wednesday. High pressure will build south of the region Thursday. A
cold front will cross the area Friday followed by high pressure on
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:10 AM Update...Low stratus clouds now cover the north so will
begin the sky cloudy. Expect these low clouds to begin mixing
out later this morning from diurnal heating. Rest of the
forecast remains on track.

The upper low which brought our rain over the weekend into Monday is
moving away north of the Maritimes. This will allow for partial
sunshine today with a warmer afternoon as highs reach the mid to
upper 70s. However, a weak hang-back upper low lingers behind over
our region. This weak upper low with some cool air pooled aloft will
result in a bit weak instability including CAPES up to around 300
J/KG during the midday and afternoon. This will result in spotty
showers and isolated thunderstorms developing, mainly during
the midday and afternoon over inland areas. Any spotty showers
will dissipate this evening with clouds giving way to a mostly
clear sky tonight. The damp ground and calm air will likely
result in patchy fog forming again overnight, especially in
valley areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level low remains across the region on Wednesday.
Thus, the pattern remains favorable for additional diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms. The upper low moves east into
the Canadian Maritimes by later Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Any lingering early evening showers are therefore
expected to dissipate with clearing skies expected overnight.
Some patchy fog will also be possible Wednesday night. A more
westerly flow aloft develops by Thursday in the wake of the
departing upper low to the east of the Canadian Maritimes.
Appears there will still be a subtle short wave crossing far
northern areas on Thursday, thus still kept mention of an
afternoon shower, mainly Aroostook county in far northern Maine.
Afternoon highs on Wednesday will in the low to mid 70s, then
in the upper 70s to near 80 on Thursday. But it will be much
cooler along the coast both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front approaches Thursday night and crosses the region
during Friday. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night. Lows
Thursday night not likely to fall much below the 60 degree mark
with southerly flow in place ahead of the approaching front. The
cold front crosses the region during Friday with showers and
thunderstorms expected. Still some uncertainty regarding the
timing of the front amongst the deterministic guidance, but an
ensemble approach would appear to bring it through the area time
of peak heating. Appears there will be sufficient shear to support
storm development, but still way too early to talk specifics.
At this point, it looks like the upcoming weekend is dry,
assuming the front sweeps completely through the area by Friday
night. Saturday is a bit cooler of day behind the front, but
still near normal for the time of year. Then temperatures return
to near normal levels by Sunday. Appear the dry weather will
continue right into the early part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
The morning will begin with VFR to MVFR conditions, with some
locally IFR conditions in fog possible in some areas. Conditions
should improve to VFR mid to late morning and remain VFR tonight
except in any patchy fog. Winds generally variable under 5 kt
today and nearly calm tonight.

SHORT TERM: Wed...VFR/MVFR. Scattered afternoon showers and isolated tstms.

Wed night...VFR. Localized patchy fog possible.

Thur...VFR.

Thur night..VFR/MVFR. Scattered showers.

Fri...MVFR or lower possible. Scatterd showers and
thunderstorms.

Sat...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light and seas 3 ft or less today and tonight.
Humid air over the waters will result in some patchy fog and
mist over the waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
Thursday. Seas could begin to approach 5 ft later Thursday
night and Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Bloomer/TWD
Marine...Bloomer/TWD