096
FXUS61 KCAR 290159
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
959 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region overnight, then slowly exit
to the east Saturday. A warm front lifts to the north Saturday
night, followed by a cold front crossing the region from Sunday
into Sunday night. High pressure then builds through Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update...
High pressure will cross the region overnight, starting to exit
across the Maritimes late. High/mid level clouds will increase,
from the west, overnight with generally partly cloudy skies.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to around
50 north, to the lower to mid 50s Downeast. Have updated to
adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight
temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Upr lvl low currently diving into the nrn Plains begins to open
up as it heads twd the wrn Great Lakes late tonight. Zonal flow
aloft will begin to transition to swrly flow late Saturday
afternoon as upr trof approaches. By 18z Saturday sfc low fcst
to be to the north of Georgian Bay with surface warm front
likely to just be entering New England. Warm advection showers
out of ahead of the front will be entering nwrn zones in the
afternoon and spreading east from there. Steady rain looks to be
from about Bangor up toward Houlton by the end of the period as
heavy rain looks to be on the doorstep as pw values climb
toward the 90th percentile once again.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm front approaches Saturday evening and lifts north later
Saturday night. The combination of the low to mid level warm
advection and short wave crossing will lead to a period of rain
Saturday evening into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts Saturday
night look to be on the order one-half to three-quarters of an
inch. Precipitable water values do increase to greater 1.50",
so certainly cannot rule out some locally higher amounts. Patchy
fog is possible late. Lows Saturday night are expected to
generally range from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

Cold front approaches Sunday morning and crosses the region
during Sunday afternoon. Dew points ahead of the front are
expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s in the airmass
ahead of the front.

The main challenge on Sunday is the convective/severe potential.
SREF guidance indicating highest probabilities of SB CAPES
greater than 1000J stretching from around Houlton, through
portions of the central Maine highlands, the upper Penobscot
Valley and the Bangor region. 0 to 6 KM shear values on the
order of around 45 to 55 kt. Still to early the talk enhanced
wording at this point, as uncertainty still exists in just how
quickly things destabilize with any lingering marine layer in
place. That being said, strong to severe storms are still a
possibility on Sunday along with locally heavy rainfall. SPC
Day 3 outlook from earlier this morning still highlighting the
Bangor region through Downeast in an slight risk with marginal
to the north of there.

The front exits the coast around or shortly after 0Z. Could be
some lingering showers or thunderstorms in the Bangor region
early evening, otherwise northwest flow of drier air follows the
passage of the cold front for Sunday night.

High pressure follows for Monday with mainly sunny skies and
perhaps some fair weather cumulus expected. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the mid 70s.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night through Wednesday looks to be fair with partly to
mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights. Afternoon high
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be near to
slightly above normal.

Next cold front approaches Wednesday night and crosses the
region on Thursday with the next chance for any showers just in
time for Independence Day. High pressure builds back in for
Friday. High temperatures by late week will be near to slightly
above normal.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected overnight into Saturday.
Isolated/scattered showers Saturday afternoon. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots, becoming south, overnight. South winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots Saturday. Southwesterly low
level wind shear will develop later Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Sat night...MVFR/IFR expected. Rain. LLWS possible. S wind
G20 kt.

Sun...MVFR/IFR early, then becoming VFR afternoon. TSRA expected. S
to SW wind G20 to 25 kt, then becoming NW late.

Sun night...MVFR possible KBGR/KBHB early in lingering TSRA,
otherwise improving to VFR.

Mon through Wed...VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory
levels overnight through Saturday afternoon. However, a few
wind gusts could begin to approach small craft advisory levels
later Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions are possible Sat night through Sun
night, otherwise expect below SCA conditions the remainder of
the period. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in rain
Saturday night and then in any showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Buster
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Norcross/TWD
Marine...Norcross/TWD