882
FXUS61 KCAR 241028
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
628 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today through
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the northwest on
Thursday, cross the area Thursday night, then continue south of the
area Friday. High pressure will build down from the north on
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:28AM Update...Isolated cool spots this morning thanks to
clear skies and strong radiational cooling. Houlton down to 35F,
Westfield 37F, Machias 37F, Monticello 38F, Wesley 39F, Baring
39F and Danforth 39F. There may have been some very patchy frost
in spots. Temperatures will begin the diurnal curve upward as
the sun is rising above the horizon now. This is the last
sunrise at due East (090deg) and today`s sunset will be due West
(270deg). Expecting tomorrow the sunrise and sunset more into
the southern skies (SE & SW). Today is also the last day of
+12hrs of daylight with us falling less than 12hrs tomorrow. No
major changes with this forecast update...

Previous Discussion...
Today, surface high pressure to our NE in the Maritimes remains
in place as the 500mb ridge axis amplifies and gradually drifts
east into New Brunswick. A mid level warm front is lifting NE
into Western New England today with increasing moisture
advection with high level cirrus clouds working into Maine.
Expecting a decently sunny day today given the drying 850-250mb
levels which is being depicted nicely in the RH plots between
those levels. Temperatures will turn slightly warmer today
generally in the mid to upper 60s across the area. Winds will
remain out of the E-SE today generally less than 10mph. The warm
front is extremely slow tonight working into far western Maine
along the NH border. Clouds will increase as moisture advection
works thicker cloud cover into the area. Expect temperatures to
fall back into the mid to upper 40s but some cool spots in the
low 40s are expected intially this evening with the radiational
cooling to start the night. Cannot rule out some patchy fog as
well tonight mainly in the river valleys and over lakes/ponds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Maritimes on Wednesday. A strong
shortwave trough sliding over a steep ridge in the Plains will
approach from Hudson Bay Canada. As the low approaches, high
pressure to the east combined with the trough to our west will bring
moisture in upon southeasterly winds. This will bring increasing
clouds, and a chance for some showers moving into western areas late
in the day.

The low diving southeastward from Hudson bay will continue to
approach Wednesday night spreading rain into the area. Low pressure
systems that approach from the northwest often have little moisture
with them. However, this system has some very strong dynamics
including vigorous divergence aloft, and it looks like the high to
our east will be able to feed some significant moisture into the
system as it nears. The low will continue approaching on Thursday
and edge into the western part of our region Thursday afternoon.
Strong dynamics and diffluence aloft will continue to work with
moisture feeding in from the southeast to produce what should be a
moderately significant rainfall. Preliminary estimates on amounts
are a half to three quarters of an inch of rain across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain should continue Thursday night as low pressure, both surface
and aloft, slides across and south of the area. Some rain may
continue into Friday morning as the low continues plunging
southeastward, south of Nova Scotia. Otherwise, Friday will remain
mostly cloudy north and cloudy to partly sunny south with a north
wind following the low.

High pressure supported by strong upper ridging building in from the
Upper Midwest will build down from the north Friday night into
Saturday. This will bring a partly to mostly sunny day Saturday with
seasonable highs in the mid 60s. High pressure and upper ridging
will continue to build over on Sunday bringing plenty of sunshine
with highs approaching 70. Dry and mild weather will likely continue
through early next week as upper ridges crosses the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR today. Cannot rule out before 12z some brief
MVFR/IFR vsby due to BR/BCFG. Winds generally E-SE 5kt or less.
Tonight, expecting VFR with increasing high cigs. BR/BCFG is
possible but confidence is low. Winds light and variable.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...VFR to MVFR. Light SE wind.

Wednesday night...MVFR lowering to LIFR. S to SE wind.

Thursday...IFR to LIFR. S to SE wind.

Thursday night...IFR. SE wind becoming E.

Friday...MVFR becoming VFR late. NE wind.

Friday night...VFR. N wind.

Saturday...VFR. N wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: E-NE winds through tonight generally less than 20kt.
Seas 2-4ft with the higher waves confined from Penobscot Bay
southwestward out 25nm and lower waves near Passamaquoddy Bay.
Tonight seas generally 1-3ft with 1ft or less in Passamaquoddy
Bay and near the Hague Line. Sea surface temperatures are
generally 54-57F from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to
the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM:
North winds may approach SCA Friday night into Saturday as low
pressure slides off the coast. Otherwise, wind and seas should
be below SCA into the coming weekend. Rain may limit vsby
Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Sinko/Bloomer
Marine...Sinko/Bloomer