391
FXUS62 KCHS 120535
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
135 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will meander near or just off the coast
through the end of the week. High pressure will build in from
the north through the weekend, then shift east early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The rest of the night will remain mild and dry. IR satellite
indicates that a band of cirrus should continue to stream across
the region overnight. Temperatures are expected to begin the day
in the upper 60s inland and low 70s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aloft, a broad trough will exit across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast States, giving way to ridging that extends from the
Central United States toward the Southeast. At the sfc, a stationary
front will meander just off the Southeast coast mid-week, then
slowly nudge further offshore by the weekend. Weak h5 shortwave
energy rounding the east-northeast portion of the ridge to the west
will be the primary driver for a few showers/thunderstorms to
develop across coastal counties Wednesday and Thursday, particularly
across coastal Georgia closer to the stalled front and highest
moisture-rich environment. However, most areas will remain dry,
especially away from the coast. By Friday, some guidance suggests
weak low pressure and/or some enhancement to a coastal trough
developing off the Southeast Coast near the vicinity of the
previously mentioned front/boundary, which could produce a few
showers/thunderstorms along coastal locations south of Edisto, SC
into southeast Georgia, but much will depend on how far the coastal
trough/low is positioned offshore to start off the weekend. The bulk
of guidance continues to maintain dry conditions across all inland
areas to start off the weekend.

High temps in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday will
increase to the low-mid 90s Friday as ridging increases from the
west. Low temps will range from the upper 60s far inland to the
lower 70s near the coast and mid 70s along the beaches both
Wednesday and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will shift across the Southeastern US and
prevail through early next week. Weak low pressure offshore should
move out into the Atlantic as high pressure builds in from the
north. However, there should be enough instability in place each day
to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active. Saturday
looks like the hottest day of the period based on the position of
the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could reach the upper
90s inland before dropping back down into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The terminals are forecast to remain VFR through the 6Z TAF
period. A sea breeze is timed to advance across KJZI by 17Z and
KCHS and KSAV during the mid to late afternoon. A period of
gusty ESE winds should occur in the wake of the sea breeze this
afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals through Saturday, although brief
flight restrictions can not be ruled out for an afternoon shower
or thunderstorm each day. Chances of tempo flight restrictions
increase Sunday with greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure north of the waters will strengthen
slightly overnight. Winds will tip back to the NE after sunset
when the sea breeze dissipates. Speeds will remain fairly low,
but could increase by a couple knots by late tonight as the
gradient tightens up a bit.

Wednesday through Sunday: Conditions are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels as broad high pressure
extends across the region from the north while a weak boundary
promotes development of a coastal trough/low offshore by the
weekend. In general, east-northeast winds around 10-15 kt will
be common Wednesday and Thursday. Once the coastal trough/low
becomes more defined this weekend, winds should briefly turn
west with speeds around 10-15 kt, before shifting back onshore
early next week. Seas will average between 2-4 ft through the
weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...