Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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630 FXUS62 KCHS 181709 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 109 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure across the Carolinas will weaken through mid week. High pressure will then develop inland late this week, and persist through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid level low over the western Carolinas will slowly shift east with time today. While at the surface, a weak trough/boundary remains draped across the region. Radar early this afternoon showed shower coverage expanding across the area. We should see this trend continue with numerous showers and some thunderstorms expected. High temperatures should peak in the mid 80s. Tonight: Circulation center will be drifting northward to the mid-Atlantic region with the stronger forcing for ascent shifting offshore. With loss of heating, precip coverage will diminish, although given the larger scale forcing, shower activity might continue to percolate through the evening hours and possibly into the overnight. Lows tonight will deep back into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thursday: A vertically stacked low pressure will be located across the eastern Mid-Atlantic Thursday morning and be slowly exiting the coast. At the surface a remnant occluded front will be sagging south into the Tri-County with a pronounced dry conveyor belt located over coastal GA (as seen on RH fields). Due to this, have raised PoPs across the TriCounty (30 - 40 %), while also keeping GA dry as 500/ 300 MB RH is forecast to be only around 10%. Forecast soundings for SC do show some instability in place (MLCAPE around 300 J/kg), but a mid-level inversion does exist. As such, expect most of the coverage to be shower based, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. Expect high temperatures in the mid 80 across SC and upper 80s over GA. This is thanks to a gradient of 1000/850 mb thicknesses with higher values over GA (ahead of the occlusion) and slightly lower values over SC. Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the upper 60s to near 70. Friday: The area of low pressure from Thursday will be just off the coast of New England Friday with SC and GA falling on the convergent side of the trough axis. This coupled with decreasing PWATs (down to around 1.45") will keep the day precipitation free with surface high pressure nudging in from the north. Expect high temperatures mostly in the mid 80s with low temperatures Friday night in the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Global ensemble guidance is in very good agreement that a trough axis will remain centered along and south of the Canadian Maritimes this weekend with a slow translation of the wave axis east Monday into Tuesday. This will allow for dry conditions Saturday and Sunday with slightly above normal temperatures as surface high pressure remains in control. Monday into Tuesday, the long wave trough axis will move east of the area with mid-level heights rapidly rising across the region. As this occurs, the humidity will return to the region as well as the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms (starting on Tuesday). && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prevailing VFR through 18z Thursday, although brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Shower coverage will slowly diminish late evening and overnight. Towards Thursday morning, there are some indications that fog/low clouds could develop. Showed hints of this in the TAF but did not have high enough confidence to include prevailing restrictions. Extended Aviation Outlook: Thursday: Morning MVFR cigs possible with prevailing VFR in the afternoon. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible which could temporarily restrict cigs and vsbys. A weak boundary will cross the terminals Thursday turning the winds from the northeast. Friday through Sunday: VFR. No precipitation is expected. && .MARINE... Southerly winds around 10 knots will prevail across the coastal waters through tonight with seas running 2 to 4 feet. Thursday: Another round of morning showers and thunderstorms are possible with a weak boundary crossing the waters Thursday. Winds will turn from the northeast 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Friday: Northeast winds will slowly start to increase in speed 10 to 15 kt as surface high pressure builds in from the north. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible, or below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Saturday and Sunday: Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts 15 to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A Small Craft Advisory might be required as the pressure gradient tightens from building high pressure. Rip Currents: The combination of a lingering swell around 2 ft at 9 seconds and high astronomical tides from the full moon will lead to a Moderate Risk of rip currents for all of our beaches today. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Positive tidal anomalies along with high astronomical tides from the full moon will lead to elevated tides for the rest of this week and through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will probably be needed for both the morning and evening high tides through Friday for both Charleston Harbor and Fort Pulaski. Saturday and Sunday, the astronomical high tides start to lower but the morning high tides will likely be elevated enough to still require Coastal Flood Advisories (especially for Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties). More uncertainty exists for Fort Pulaski. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...ETM SHORT TERM...Haines LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...ETM/Haines MARINE...Adam/Haines