913
FXUS61 KCLE 182323
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
723 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure persists over the region through this
week. Widespread near-record temperatures will be possible across
the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop each
day. Low pressure arrives near the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...
Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the area this
evening, producing locally heavy rainfall. As the sun continues
to set, showers should end and leave the area dry for tonight.
Only update made was to temperatures to reflect the much cooler
temperatures in areas where it had rained today. Also updated
the dewpoint temperatures to reflect observations. No other
changes were needed with this update as the hot, humid forecast
remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
Ridge of high pressure remains in place over much of the eastern
CONUS through the near term and into the rest of week. This will
allow for continued heat across the region with high temperatures in
the 90s and heat indices each afternoon in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. No changes were made to the heat headlines with this
update and a Heat Advisory remains in effect through the near
term period.

Thunderstorms that popped up this afternoon will continue to
decrease in coverage and intensity this evening as we lose daytime
heating. Rinse and repeat day tomorrow with temperatures rising
into the 90s accompanied by dew points in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will once again allow for MLCAPE values to rise to
2000+ J/kg by Wednesday afternoon coupled with DCAPE values in
the 900-1200 J/kg range. This will lead to another afternoon of
pop up convection with wet downbursts possible to develop
across Northeast Ohio for Wednesday. Additionally, above average
PWAT values approaching 2 inches (PIT 90th percentile is 1.5
inches) and slow cloud layer wind speed (<10 kt) may lead to
instances of flash flooding again tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A piece of energy is expected to round the upper level ridge north
of Lake Erie on Wednesday night as low pressure moves into northern
Quebec. A weak cold front does settle south to near Lake Erie but is
expected to stall somewhere across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. Thursday and Friday are still expected to be hot, but
winds shifting to the north late Thursday and continuing on Friday
may provide some minimal relief to mainly northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Inland highs are still expected to be in the
mid to upper 90s while lakeshore areas may top out in the upper 80s.
Heat index values still expected to range from the upper mid 90s to
near 100 except may be closer to 90 near the lakeshore with enhanced
lake breezes contributing to some relief. Scattered thunderstorms
remain possible ahead of and along the cold front on Thursday and
near the stalled boundary on Friday. With continued hot and humid
conditions and some frontal forcing, can not rule out the potential
for a few strong storms again with locally heavy rain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The boundary lifts back north as a warm front on Saturday as low
pressure moves east across the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures warm
several degrees again on Saturday and may need to extend the Heat
Advisory another day for at least a portion of the forecast area.
Saturday night is likely to be quite warm in NW Ohio with continued
southwest flow overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front on Sunday
afternoon, especially for areas along and east of I-71.

A break from the heat will finally come behind the cold front on
Monday as high temperatures on Monday settle into the mid 70s to mid
80s with much lower humidity. A break in the active weather is also
expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. The
break from the heat will tend to be short lived as we trend warmer
again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions should persist through this entire period as
well with the exception of locally reduced visibilities in
any thunderstorms that move over the terminals. Overall coverage
in storms will continue to diminish this evening, but another
potential round of active weather arrives tomorrow in the late
morning through afternoon hours. Expecting this to also remain
scattered in nature so opted to handle it with VCTS in the
afternoon for most terminals with the exception of KFDY and KTOL
where introduced TSRA from 20-23Z on Wednesday. In any storms
that develop, very efficient, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
remain the primary concern. Winds through the period will
maintain a predominately southern component with a magnitude of
5-10 knots. Any deviation from light winds will primarily be
associated with thunderstorms.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated
thunderstorms and non-VFR conditions are possible Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions expected to persist on Lake Erie
through Saturday with afternoon lake breezes. Winds will generally
be less than 15 knots except with scattered thunderstorms which
could produce strong to severe winds. A cold front is forecast to
cross Lake Erie on Sunday with southwest winds of 10-20 knots ahead
of the front on Sunday and northwest winds of near 15 knots Sunday
night into Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for a window
of time later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on
several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Friday, June
21 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Iverson
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...KEC
CLIMATE...