747
FXUS61 KCLE 181950
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
350 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure persists over the region through this
week. Widespread near-record temperatures will be possible across
the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop each
day. Low pressure arrives near the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure remains in place over much of the eastern
CONUS through the near term and into the rest of week. This will
allow for continued heat across the region with high temperatures in
the 90s and heat indices each afternoon in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. No changes were made to the heat headlines with this
update and a Heat Advisory remains in effect through the near
term period.

Thunderstorms that popped up this afternoon will continue to
decrease in coverage and intensity this evening as we lose daytime
heating. Rinse and repeat day tomorrow with temperatures rising
into the 90s accompanied by dew points in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This will once again allow for MLCAPE values to rise to
2000+ J/kg by Wednesday afternoon coupled with DCAPE values in
the 900-1200 J/kg range. This will lead to another afternoon of
pop up convection with wet downbursts possible to develop
across Northeast Ohio for Wednesday. Additionally, above average
PWAT values approaching 2 inches (PIT 90th percentile is 1.5
inches) and slow cloud layer wind speed (<10 kt) may lead to
instances of flash flooding again tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A piece of energy is expected to round the upper level ridge north
of Lake Erie on Wednesday night as low pressure moves into northern
Quebec. A weak cold front does settle south to near Lake Erie but is
expected to stall somewhere across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. Thursday and Friday are still expected to be hot, but
winds shifting to the north late Thursday and continuing on Friday
may provide some minimal relief to mainly northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Inland highs are still expected to be in the
mid to upper 90s while lakeshore areas may top out in the upper 80s.
Heat index values still expected to range from the upper mid 90s to
near 100 except may be closer to 90 near the lakeshore with enhanced
lake breezes contributing to some relief. Scattered thunderstorms
remain possible ahead of and along the cold front on Thursday and
near the stalled boundary on Friday. With continued hot and humid
conditions and some frontal forcing, can not rule out the potential
for a few strong storms again with locally heavy rain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The boundary lifts back north as a warm front on Saturday as low
pressure moves east across the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures warm
several degrees again on Saturday and may need to extend the Heat
Advisory another day for at least a portion of the forecast area.
Saturday night is likely to be quite warm in NW Ohio with continued
southwest flow overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front on Sunday
afternoon, especially for areas along and east of I-71.

A break from the heat will finally come behind the cold front on
Monday as high temperatures on Monday settle into the mid 70s to mid
80s with much lower humidity. A break in the active weather is also
expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. The
break from the heat will tend to be short lived as we trend warmer
again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Have VCTS at all TAF sites this afternoon to account for ongoing
pop up convection. The best location for continued storm
development looks to remain along and east of I-71 and along the
I-80 corridor. Have placed TEMPO groups for TSRA impacts at
KCLE and sites east. Expectation is for these storms to
decrease in intensity and coverage by 22-23Z tonight as we lose
daytime heating.

Winds remain southerly through the period less than 10 knots
with the exception of higher wind speeds and gusts in any
thunderstorms at terminals.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions expected to persist on Lake Erie
through Saturday with afternoon lake breezes. Winds will generally
be less than 15 knots except with scattered thunderstorms which
could produce strong to severe winds. A cold front is forecast to
cross Lake Erie on Sunday with southwest winds of 10-20 knots ahead
of the front on Sunday and northwest winds of near 15 knots Sunday
night into Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for a window
of time later Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on
several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Friday, June
21 are listed below for our official climate sites.

Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...KEC
CLIMATE...