Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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913 FXUS61 KCLE 182323 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 723 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure persists over the region through this week. Widespread near-record temperatures will be possible across the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop each day. Low pressure arrives near the end of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 630 PM Update... Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the area this evening, producing locally heavy rainfall. As the sun continues to set, showers should end and leave the area dry for tonight. Only update made was to temperatures to reflect the much cooler temperatures in areas where it had rained today. Also updated the dewpoint temperatures to reflect observations. No other changes were needed with this update as the hot, humid forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion... Ridge of high pressure remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS through the near term and into the rest of week. This will allow for continued heat across the region with high temperatures in the 90s and heat indices each afternoon in the upper 90s to lower 100s. No changes were made to the heat headlines with this update and a Heat Advisory remains in effect through the near term period. Thunderstorms that popped up this afternoon will continue to decrease in coverage and intensity this evening as we lose daytime heating. Rinse and repeat day tomorrow with temperatures rising into the 90s accompanied by dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will once again allow for MLCAPE values to rise to 2000+ J/kg by Wednesday afternoon coupled with DCAPE values in the 900-1200 J/kg range. This will lead to another afternoon of pop up convection with wet downbursts possible to develop across Northeast Ohio for Wednesday. Additionally, above average PWAT values approaching 2 inches (PIT 90th percentile is 1.5 inches) and slow cloud layer wind speed (<10 kt) may lead to instances of flash flooding again tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A piece of energy is expected to round the upper level ridge north of Lake Erie on Wednesday night as low pressure moves into northern Quebec. A weak cold front does settle south to near Lake Erie but is expected to stall somewhere across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Thursday and Friday are still expected to be hot, but winds shifting to the north late Thursday and continuing on Friday may provide some minimal relief to mainly northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Inland highs are still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s while lakeshore areas may top out in the upper 80s. Heat index values still expected to range from the upper mid 90s to near 100 except may be closer to 90 near the lakeshore with enhanced lake breezes contributing to some relief. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible ahead of and along the cold front on Thursday and near the stalled boundary on Friday. With continued hot and humid conditions and some frontal forcing, can not rule out the potential for a few strong storms again with locally heavy rain possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The boundary lifts back north as a warm front on Saturday as low pressure moves east across the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures warm several degrees again on Saturday and may need to extend the Heat Advisory another day for at least a portion of the forecast area. Saturday night is likely to be quite warm in NW Ohio with continued southwest flow overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon, especially for areas along and east of I-71. A break from the heat will finally come behind the cold front on Monday as high temperatures on Monday settle into the mid 70s to mid 80s with much lower humidity. A break in the active weather is also expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. The break from the heat will tend to be short lived as we trend warmer again by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR conditions should persist through this entire period as well with the exception of locally reduced visibilities in any thunderstorms that move over the terminals. Overall coverage in storms will continue to diminish this evening, but another potential round of active weather arrives tomorrow in the late morning through afternoon hours. Expecting this to also remain scattered in nature so opted to handle it with VCTS in the afternoon for most terminals with the exception of KFDY and KTOL where introduced TSRA from 20-23Z on Wednesday. In any storms that develop, very efficient, heavy rainfall and gusty winds remain the primary concern. Winds through the period will maintain a predominately southern component with a magnitude of 5-10 knots. Any deviation from light winds will primarily be associated with thunderstorms. Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms and non-VFR conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Generally good marine conditions expected to persist on Lake Erie through Saturday with afternoon lake breezes. Winds will generally be less than 15 knots except with scattered thunderstorms which could produce strong to severe winds. A cold front is forecast to cross Lake Erie on Sunday with southwest winds of 10-20 knots ahead of the front on Sunday and northwest winds of near 15 knots Sunday night into Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for a window of time later Sunday into Monday. && .CLIMATE... A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week. Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018) 06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931) 06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016) 06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Campbell/Iverson SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Campbell MARINE...KEC CLIMATE...