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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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164 FXUS61 KCLE 140812 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 412 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south across the area Friday morning, followed by a strong upper level ridge that will persist through the weekend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A relative lull is in place across the region as a mesoscale complex slides east across central and southern OH. Simultaneously, a well-defined cold front is pushing south across Lake Erie early this morning, evident on radar and characterized by decreasing dew points into the 50s behind the front across Ontario and abrupt, northerly wind shifts. Unfortunately, this means that much of the region will likely remain dry once again as the front continues to push south across the area through today. Depending on the front`s southward progression throughout today, there could be some additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, especially along the US-30 corridor, though given recent trends, confidence appears to be decreasing in this potential and anticipate PoPs may need to be lowered in the next update as residual outflow boundaries appear to be much further south and east. However, if any storms are able to develop later this afternoon along the front, they will have a narrow and brief window to become strong to severe with favorable mid- level shear of 40 to 50 knots in addition to modest MLCAPE of ~1000 J/kg. These storms would primarily pose a wind/hail threat given straight and long hodographs. Quiet and more seasonable weather will arrive on Saturday with highs generally upper 70s to lower 80s. This will likely be the last "nice" weather day for a while as a prolonged heat wave begins to develop on Sunday and is expected to persist through much of next week. More details on that below. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper level high over the southern plains region will migrate eastward and build over the eastern third of the CONUS for the end of the week and into early next week. The main story is a building heat wave over the region that has been in the forecast for a few days now with temperatures well into the 90s by Monday. Only far NW PA will potentially remain in the upper 80s, but conversely, on the western end of the CWA upper 90s should be expected. The ground/surface continues to dry out overall despite a little rain yesterday in NW OH which will contribute to the ability of the temperatures to climb. Will need to see if there will be any cloud cover, but likely just some cumulus fields for the CWA. The operational long terms differ a little bit with one having lower 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures, and also suggesting convection possible with enough layer moisture while the other has a stronger dome of high pressure aloft and less convective coverage in the return flow setup. Leaning towards the hotter and drier solution for this forecast into Monday. Immediate lakeshore areas may be a couple degrees cooler Monday, but the southerly wind component will likely eliminate much of that advantage. Dewpoints mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Heat wave will continue into the long term portion of the forecast towards the end of next week. No real changes to the pattern overall. The upper level high will likely shift towards the northeastern US, but this will not change the sensible weather much for our CWA. Expect 90s to be the norm through the week and very little in the way of rain chances with no organized systems moving into the region with the largely blocked upper level pattern. Will be needing rain by the end of the long term forecast as it stands with this issuance. Dewpoints persist in the mid 60s to lower 70s through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. There is low confidence of scattered showers/isolated thunder moving east across the area early Friday morning, so have not included any mention at this time. Slightly better chance of a brief window of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the US-30 corridor, primarily impacting CAK/MFD Friday afternoon, so have added vcts mention. There could be a narrow corridor of MVFR ceilings ahead of an approaching cold front on Friday morning/afternoon, but confidence is low. Winds are generally from the southwest early this morning, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will abruptly shift towards the north behind a cold front through Friday morning and afternoon, 5 to 10 knots. Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Tuesday. && .MARINE... With a cold front coming through, onshore winds prevail today through tonight 15-20kts for the central and western basins of Lake Erie with 1-3ft wave heights, becoming 10-15kts Saturday with a more easterly component to the winds and waves gradually subsiding to the 1-2ft range. From Sunday on, expect offshore winds to prevail with high pressure situated to the east of the region and nearshore wave heights generally a foot or less through the rest of the forecast period. && .CLIMATE... A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-17 97(1994) 94(1936) 94(2018) 94(2018) 95(1994) 90(2018) 06-18 98(1994) 93(1994) 96(1944) 96(1944) 95(1994) 92(2018) 06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931) 06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016) 06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...26 CLIMATE...