535
FXUS61 KCLE 141942
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region tonight and persist
through the weekend. A strong ridge will remain over the region
through much of next week providing well above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Decreasing shower/thunderstorm threat will linger over the next
couple of hours as a cold front works south of the forecast
area. Lowered near term pops a bit as radar/sat trends suggest
minimal convection developing in our forecast area, with the
bulk of the activity remaining south of the area. Any storm that
does fire over the next few hours could bring damaging winds
and large hail, but the threat is quickly diminishing and
pushing south.

High pressure builds into the area tonight and persists through
Saturday night, with mainly clear skies and seasonable
temperatures. Highs Saturday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s
across the area, with areas near Lake Erie only reaching the low
70s. Lows tonight and Saturday night will generally be in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An dominant ridging pattern is expected through the short term
period, with the axis of the ridge moving over the region Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. This ridge coupled with the associated
surface high and dry airmass will keep conditions dry Sunday and
Monday. The one thing to watch on Monday is a shortwave upper level
vort max that pushes along the northern fringe of the ridge which
will be located near Lake Erie. This may result in some isolated
showers/thunderstorms over and/or near Lake Erie, but confidence is
higher north of the entire area, so opted to maintain dry conditions
for now. Both days can expect a diurnal cu field to develop, which
will give a few breaks in the direct sun, but with increased WAA and
very dry surface antecedent conditions, expecting temperatures to
begin to climb. On Sunday, highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s
before climbing into the 90s for the entire area Monday. The
exception will be the far western tier of counties which may touch
100 degrees on Monday. In addition, higher dewpoint values ranging
from the mid 60s to low 70s will result in apparent temperatures
values exceeding 100 for areas along and west of I77. Not much
relief will be felt with overnight temperatures only falling into
the upper 60s to low 70s both nights. This period ultimately marks
the start to a prolonged period of well above normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The dominant ridging pattern discussed in the short term period is
expected to persist through much of the long term period. Near the
end of the period on Friday, the upper level ridge axis is expected
to shift to near the East Coast along with the surface high. This
means that the aforementioned prolonged well above normal
temperatures will likely continue through Thursday and Friday with
highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s, and heat indices nearing 100.
With such a prolonged heat wave, there are the potential for heat
related illnesses, especially for the vulnerable populations and
those that do not have places to cool down. Stay tuned for updated
forecasts, especially about when the area will see some relief.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure
builds into the region in the wake of a cold front. An isolated
SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out at KMFD and KCAK over the first
two hours of the period until the front pushes south of the
region, but confidence and likelihood too low for TAF mention
at this time. Afternoon cu in the wake of the front will give
way to mostly clear skies through the remainder of the period.
North-northeast winds generally expected through the period in
the 10-12 kt range through sunset, then becoming 6 kts or less
overnight, and increasing to 7-10 kts after daybreak Saturday
through the end of the period.

Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure has begun to build over the area and will persist
through much of next week, slowly meandering towards the East Coast.
Winds tonight will be from the north-northeast at 10-15 knots,
weakening on Saturday to 5-10 knots. This will result in waves of 1-
2 feet, especially in the central basin. On Sunday, winds of 5-10
knots become southeasterly allowing for waves less than 1 foot. The
winds shift again on Monday to become southwesterly but remain at 5-
10 knots as the high pressure is dominant. Winds will generally
maintain a southerly component through the end of the week with
little change expected in the overall pattern. No marine headlines
are expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected next week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs on several
days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Friday June 21 are
listed below for our official climate sites.


Date   Toledo     Mansfield   Cleveland   Akron     Youngstown   Erie
06-17  97(1994)    94(1936)   94(2018)    94(2018)   95(1994)    90(2018)
06-18  98(1994)    93(1994)   96(1944)    96(1944)   95(1994)    92(2018)
06-19  98(1995)    94(1994)   92(1995)    94(1994)   94(1994)    92(1931)
06-20  98(1953)    94(1988)   96(1988)    95(1933)   95(1933)    92(2016)
06-21  100(2022)   96(1988)   95(2022)    97(1933)   98(1933)    95(1933)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Campbell
CLIMATE...