790
FXUS61 KCLE 250545
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slide east through the Great Lakes tonight
into Tuesday, lifting a warm north north across the area Tuesday
afternoon. A cold front will then move east through the region
on Wednesday, followed by high pressure by the end of the week.
Another low pressure system system is expected to move across the
region on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM Update...
The forecast for this evening remains on track and no changes
were needed with this update. The convection over southern
Wisconsin will stay to the west of the CWA and the complex over
northern Minnesota will be the activity to monitor overnight as
it likely moves southeast. The area will likely be at least
clipped by this complex Tuesday morning, but there`s still
uncertainty in how much instability is in place and how much the
MCS weakens by daybreak.

Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure and upper- level troughing will exit east
of the region as an upper- level ridge builds across the Great
Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Beneath the ridge. very steep mid-
level lapse rates will be advected northeastwards across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region tonight into Tuesday,
resulting in strong instability, but also strong capping.

An upper-level trough across northern ND/MN this evening will
provide sufficient forcing for an organized complex of
thunderstorms to develop and move southeastward through the
Great Lakes overnight into Tuesday morning. Confidence is
increasing in at least some elevated convection arriving across
northern OH Tuesday morning. Will need to monitor upstream
convective trends, particularly later this evening and overnight
as any storms that are able to become surface-based would have
the potential for damaging wind gusts. There is also a
concerning signal for the HRRR late Tuesday morning behind the
convection for the potential of a wake low to produce strong
wind gusts. This potential is low, but possible, given the
expectation of a rapidly-decaying MCS and warming cloud tops.

Otherwise, anticipating much of Tuesday afternoon and evening to
be relatively quiet as morning convection combined with an elevated-
mixed layer should result in strong capping and inhibit
initiation. If this outcome holds true, high temperatures
should break unto the upper 80s to lower 90s under diminishing
cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be in the process of progressing southeast across
the region to begin the short term period. Showers and thunderstorms
along this cold front will continue to move through the region with
the potential for any strong to severe storms dependent on how the
environment evolves with any storms that occur Tuesday and Tuesday
night. High pressure will quickly build over the region behind the
cold front which will end any remaining showers and storms and clear
out cloud cover for Thursday.

Near normal high temperatures on Wednesday in the upper 70s to mid
80s across the region. Lows will settle in the upper 50s to lower
60s Wednesday night. Cooler behind the cold front by Thursday with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Northerly flow with a clear sky
Thursday night will allow for lows to dip in to the low 50s across
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Slightly warmer in the
mid to upper 50s west of the I-71 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains overhead to end the work week before we
undergo another unsettled period this weekend. We`ll be dry to begin
Friday with PoPs increasing Friday afternoon and evening from west
to east. Warm front lifts northeast bringing showers and the
potential for some strong to severe storms to the region through
Saturday. Cold front will cross east Saturday night into Sunday
morning followed by high pressure which will allow us to end the
long term period fairly dry.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the first part of the long
term with the warmest day of the period occurring on Saturday as the
warm front lifts through the region. High temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s are possible Saturday before they return closer to
normal behind the cold front Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions should persist across all terminals for the
remainder of tonight and for much of the day on Tuesday.
However, there is a large amount of uncertainty with how an
upstream MCS will impact the area Tuesday morning. Some hi-res
models suggest it weakening when others suggest it surging
south, and there is little agreement with the exact path it will
take. The highest confidence in the remnants impacting any
terminal is for KTOL and KFDY. The best timing for initial onset
of precipitation is generally around 15Z, but will need to
continue to monitor the ongoing convection and update as needed.
Once this surges south, a warm front will also be lifting north
and behind this boundary winds will increase from the south-
southwest to 12-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots. Locally higher
winds are possible in any thunderstorms, along with reduction to
MVFR and possibly IFR visibilities. After sunset, winds will
weaken to 5-10 knots as a cold front approaches from the west.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, but given the
spread in model agreement for the morning convection, opted to
just handle this with VCTS or a TEMPO for thunderstorms
producing MVFR distances. It is important to note that while
confidence remains low on exact timing and placement of weather
on Tuesday, there is a general consensus amongst models that
there will be impactful weather which may result in
visibility/ceiling reduction to non-VFR. Definitely a day to
keep an eye on the forecast and all updates as this will be an
evolving situation.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms today
and Wednesday. Non-VFR possible again in showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure begins to exit eastward tonight and allows a warm
front to sweep northward across Lake Erie. Variable winds around 5
to 10 knots become southerly and increase to 15 to 20 knots as the
warm front moves across the lake. On Tuesday, southerly to
southwesterly winds are expected to freshen further to about 15 to
25 knots as a potent low moves eastward through the James Bay region
and interacts with the western flank of the aforementioned ridge
over/near Lake Erie. The southerly to southwesterly winds are
expected to be strongest west of Vermilion. Accordingly, a Small
Craft Advisory has been issued for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay
to Vermilion from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday. The limited fetch will
result in waves of mainly 3 feet or less in nearshore waters, but
waves as large as 4 feet are expected along/near 5 nautical miles
offshore. Waves as large as 3 to 6 feet are expected in open U.S.
waters. Southwesterly to westerly winds ease to around 10 to 15
knots Tuesday night as the aforementioned ridge continues to exit
eastward and the aforementioned low weakens/moves farther eastward.
Waves subside to 3 feet or less by daybreak.

On Wednesday, the low will move toward Labrador and drag a cold
front eastward across Lake Erie. The cold front passage will cause
winds around 10 to 15 knots to become more westerly and then
northwesterly by late Wednesday night as waves remain 3 feet or
less. Behind the cold front, high pressure builds from the Upper
Midwest and western Great Lakes through Friday before another warm
front sweeps northward across Lake Erie Friday night. On Saturday,
another cold front should approach from the west. Variable flow
around 5 to 15 knots is expected Wednesday night through Saturday as
waves remain mainly 3 feet or less. However, occasional 4 footers
are forecast in open U.S. waters on Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn/Maines
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Iverson