Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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535 FXUS64 KCRP 241954 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 254 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Key Message: - Low (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow As visible on water vaper satellite imagery, the upper to mid-level pattern features a trough over the Plains just east of the Mississippi River and is progged to dig further southeast over the next several days. A cold front currently draped across north Texas will surge southward and is expected to move across our CWA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The most notable changes will be winds out of the north and a drop in dewpoints late Wednesday. Daytime temperatures won`t be affected much ranging around 90-95 degrees but overnight lows Wednesday night will drop into the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day remain low to moderate (20-40%) across much of the region through Wednesday with low chances overnight tonight and dry conditions expected tomorrow night. As the aforementioned front moves through our CWA we will transition to the long term period, so more on that below. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Key Messages: - Cold front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning - Increasing risk of rip currents and potential coastal flooding late this week as Tropical Storm Helene moves across the Gulf We start off the long term with a weak cold front pushing through the region. The boundary will be moving through late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. By daybreak Thursday, it should be right along or just offshore our coastline. A few isolated showers may linger along the coast Thursday morning before pushing offshore. Much drier air will filter in behind the front with PWATs falling below 1". Increased subsidence and dry air will lead to a generally rain-free forecast through the weekend. Tropical Storm Helene developed earlier today in the NW Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall along the NE Gulf coast on Thursday. As Helene moves across the Gulf, we will see a few coastal concerns develop locally. Gerling-Hanson plots suggest 10-12s swells will arrive late this week and into the weekend. This would promote an increased rip current risk, minor coastal flooding, and hazardous marine conditions. Highs temps through the long term will generally settle into the low to mid 90s. Drier air will help keep heat indices in check with a minor heat risk through the long term. Low temps will dip into the mid 60s for our inland areas in the wake of the front. We add on a couple of degrees every night with most back into the 70s by the start of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Currently have scattered showers on radar with gusty winds up to around 30 knots affecting eastern sites. Overall, VFR conditions this afternoon are expected to be accompanied by light and variable winds becoming southeasterly with the seabreeze. Have included MVFR/IFR VSBY`s and may also have MVFR to IFR CIG`s at ALI/VCT but not confident enough to include in TAF`s at this time. Guidance suggesting few to scattered clouds but has been struggling with cloud cover lately, resulting in lower confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Weak onshore flow will continue through midweek, bringing a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday, winds will strengthen slightly, becoming moderate and shifting north by Thursday as a cold front moves offshore. This could lead to brief periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions. A moderate northerly wind will continue on Thursday in the wake of the cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger over the coastal waters through Thursday morning before drier air moves into the region. As Tropical Storm Helene moves north across the Gulf, we could see hazardous marine conditions over the weekend as increased swells arrive. For updates on tropical cyclone development, visit hurricanes.gov. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 92 73 90 / 20 30 10 0 Victoria 73 95 69 91 / 20 40 0 0 Laredo 75 96 72 92 / 10 20 10 0 Alice 74 95 71 91 / 20 30 10 0 Rockport 78 93 74 92 / 20 40 20 0 Cotulla 75 98 70 93 / 10 20 10 0 Kingsville 75 94 72 90 / 20 30 10 10 Navy Corpus 80 89 77 88 / 20 30 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....TC/95 AVIATION...BF