613
FXUS64 KCRP 171129
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Key a close eye on the Tropics

Overall, today will be hot and muggy with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly along the coast and over the gulf waters as
gulf moisture begins to surge into the region. Radar was already
picking up scattered showers along the coast reflective of the 2
inch PWAT lurking just off the coast. Heat Indices will range
from 105 to 109. Winds will steadily increase over the marine
areas as the pressure gradient tightens from the approaching gulf
disturbance. Have been observing occasional gusts near 25 knots
already this morning. Have hoisted SCA`s for this afternoon when
winds should be more steady above 20 knots, but this may need to
be initiated sooner if observations indicate. Due to increasing
winds and swell period over 9 seconds expect a high risk of rip
currents to begin tonight with steadily increasing water levels,
which could approach adisory thresholds overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Tropical development probability holding at 70% - Development
likely.

- Heavy rain potential increasing - Moderate ERO for
Wednesday/Wednesday night.

- Moderate to high chance of coastal flooding and dangerous rip
currents by early to mid-week.

We are continuing to monitor for potential tropical development in
the western Gulf of Mexico this week. NHC puts the probability of
development at 60% in 48 hours and 70% for the 7 day period. There
is still considerable uncertainty with how this evolves and where
exactly landfall would be, but regardless of this, we are most
likely to be on the wet side of this system with several inches of
rain possible Tuesday through the end of the week. P-ETSS guidance
indicates the potential for 3FT MSL which would equate to around 2FT
of inundation Wednesday into Thursday. This would potentially
warrant a coastal flood warning down the road.

Circling back around to rainfall, the amount of moisture pushing
into Texas is impressive with PWAT values on a couple of models
topping out around 3" - for context, the CRP PWAT climatology (from
SPC`s website) indicates 3" is an all-time record value, with the
second highest at 2.86. QPF maxs have drifted back toward our
forecast area for the mid-week period, and  a widespread heavy rain
event is looking more likely. An area average 3-5 inches seems
reasonable at this point with more like 5-8 inches near the coast.
Isolated amounts even higher than this are possible within some of
the banding features. The period with the greatest potential for
heavy rain looks to be Tuesday night through Wednesday night at this
time. Flash flooding and river flooding will be a growing concern.
In terms of the excessive rainfall outlooks, we have a slight risk
for Tuesday/Tuesday night along the coast. For Wednesday/Wednesday
Night, eastern and northern portions of the area are in a moderate
risk with a slight risk over the rest of the area.

While not the greatest concern with this system, the wind field does
look to spread pretty far north of the center and we could see winds
of 30kts with gusts to around 40 kts (~35G45mph) over the waters
and areas near the coast.

As mentioned, there is still plenty of uncertainty in how this
evolves. All of the parameters mentioned above could change with
time, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts and outlooks.

Conditions improve late in the week as the disturbance moves west of
the area.  One other thing to note - if the current expectations
hold, temperatures will be well below normal mid-week, and only
rebound slightly late in the week.  High temperatures are currently
forecast in the 80s for  Wednesday/Thursday, sneaking back up into
the lower 90s for late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Expect VFR conditions across the region today with isolated to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms streaming in across the
Coastal Bend from the gulf. Winds will increase from the southeast
with gusts around 25 knots along the coast this afternoon.
Diurnal winds will gust near 30 knots along the Rio Grande
impacting the LRD-COT terminals this evening. Winds decrease
overnight and become more easterly. Expect showers to continue
along the coast through daybreak Tuesday with VFR conditions
continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Onshore winds will becoming moderate to strong this afternoon and
Tonight with SCAs likely. Strong onshore winds expected to
develop Tuesday and continue through Thursday. Occasional gusts to
gale force will be possible Wednesday through Thursday. Wave
heights are expected to increase to 8-13 feet across the coastal
waters this week, especially if a tropical depression or tropical
storm develops in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National
Hurricane Center has a high, 70% chance of development in the next
7 days. Regardless of tropical development, deep moisture will
move into the area resulting in a 50-90% chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  79  91  77 /  30  30  60  70
Victoria          92  76  89  74 /  50  10  50  50
Laredo           101  78  98  77 /   0   0  20  20
Alice             97  76  93  75 /  20  10  50  50
Rockport          93  82  91  79 /  50  40  70  70
Cotulla          102  79  99  78 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        96  78  91  76 /  30  20  60  60
Navy Corpus       91  83  90  80 /  50  50  70  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
     for TXZ245-342>345-347-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT
     Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JM/75