203
FXUS64 KCRP 251132
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Risk: Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts.
- Rip Currents: Moderate risk continues through tonight.

Synopsis

The weather pattern in South Texas remains relatively unchanged,
dominated by an upper-level high-pressure system over W TX. Forecast
models show the high-pressure center retrograding slightly westward
today and tonight. Meanwhile a weak inverted trough moves west today
around the southern periphery of the high. Despite this feature,
subsidence from the high-pressure system will keep rain chances low
(5-20%) today then have silent PoP`s tonight and tomorrow.

Temperature and Humidity

- Moisture Levels: Abundant moisture will persist in the lower
levels, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 2 inches
through this morning, then dropping to around 1.70" by Wednesday
night according to the GEFS mean ensemble.
- Temperature Forecast: High temperatures are expected to range in
the 90s today and tomorrow. However, the very humid airmass will
lead to heat indices generally ranging from 105 to 109 degrees
Fahrenheit, with some locations potentially reaching 110-113 degrees
over the northern Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend this
afternoon. However there is a low chance (10-20%) that heat indices
will reach 110 degrees today.

Coastal Conditions

- Swell Periods: Swell periods have decreased to around 5-6 seconds
this afternoon.
- Tide Levels: Despite the decrease, tide levels remain about 1 foot
above normal, around 2.2 feet MSL at Aransas Pass according to the P-
ETSS model today and tomorrow.
- Rip Currents: Despite lower swells and periods, elevated water
levels in the bays and intracoastal waters continue to flow into the
Gulf, creating stronger currents, especially near the jetties. As a
result, will maintain a Moderate Risk for rip currents through at
least tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related
impacts

- Rain chances return this week into this weekend

A shortwave traversing across the region around the eastern
periphery of the ridge Thursday and the development of an inverted
trough Friday in its wake will lead to low (15-25%) chances of
showers and thunderstorms. The ridge is expected to shift eastward
and expand east to west across the Southern Plains into the
Southeast CONUS late this week into this weekend. Embedded
shortwaves and inverted troughs moving along the southern
periphery of the ridge late this weekend into early next week will
lead to low to medium (20-40%) chances for rain with the most
active day appearing to be Sunday.

With the best subsidence remaining north of South Texas and
increased cloud cover due to the shortwaves, max temperatures will
remain in check and thus, heat index values will remain reasonable
for this time of the year. However, WPC continues to show 30-40%
chances for heat index values to range from 110-115 degrees Thursday
through early next week from the Coastal Bend to the Brush Country
with a low (less than 18%) chance of heat index surpassing 115
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Have amended ALI VSBY for this morning after recent investigation
of obs and updated guidance. Will maintain MVFR conditions for
VCT/COT/LRD this morning. VFR conditions return mid- to late
morning. Winds expected to increase to around 10-12 knots out of
the southeast this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots. VFR
conditions return this afternoon with a low chance for showers
(20%) across eastern portions of South Texas from near ALI
eastward. VFR conditions prevail tonight as drier conditions take
hold.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today expect low chances (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms
offshore accompanied by generally weak onshore flow today, weak to
moderate tonight then weak to moderate again tomorrow. A weak to
moderate onshore flow will continue through late this week before
becoming moderate to strong levels between 15-20 knots Friday.
Weak to moderate flow is expected to return Saturday night. Rain
chances will be low throughout the week, but will increase to
medium late this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  80  93  78 /  20   0   0   0
Victoria          92  77  93  76 /  20   0  10   0
Laredo            97  79  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             95  76  96  76 /  20   0   0   0
Rockport          92  82  93  81 /  20   0   0   0
Cotulla           99  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  78  94  77 /  20   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       90  83  90  82 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...BF/80