Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
603 FXUS64 KCRP 161949 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Moderate to heavy showers with an occasional thunderstorm have moved over the Brush Country continuing westward in association with an early strong storm outflow. The Brush Country is an untapped area of instability but weak lapse rates around 5-6 C/km from the KCRP 12Z sounding likely prohibits strong updrafts and therefore thunderstorms. This activity will continue west- northwest through the afternoon hours before waning into the evening as stability increases. Skies will become mostly clear across South Texas and low-level moisture will allow for a medium chance of fog development over the Victoria Crossroads. Although mid-upper level ridging will increase tonight into Tuesday and lead to drier northwesterly flow, moist low-level flow along with PVA from 850-700mb will stay intact over the southern half of the CWA (mainly south and west of I-37). We`ll keep a low 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the aforementioned area through the day on Tuesday with PWATs around 2.0". However, strong downdrafts from heavy showers may cause an outflow boundary that acts as a lifting mechanism for other cells to develop. Again, once we lose surface heating and stability increases Tuesday night, rain chances will quickly diminish. Lows tonight and Tuesday night range from the mid to upper 70s with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values will peak around 105 in areas unfortunate to miss out on any rain/sky cover. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Key Messages: - Morning and afternoon showers and storms possible (~30%) along the Coastal Bend much of the week - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts through Friday Ample moisture will remain in place across at least the southern half of the Coastal Bend through at least Thursday and potentially into the weekend as well. The GFS and its ensembles are drier than almost all other guidance, so throwing out that guidance, the rest are more aggressive with PWATs generally >2 inches through Thursday and then a little drier heading into the weekend. Lingering surface boundaries may still be in the area, but even if not, the combination of high moisture and ample instability, along with the sea breeze, should be more than enough to trigger at least a few showers and storms each day through Thursday and potentially into the weekend, though coverage would likely be less Friday and beyond as the best moisture leaves the area. Elsewhere, ridging will largely dominate with mostly benign weather conditions. The combination of warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints will continue to pose a threat as heat index values climb back into the 105-114 range. Heat Advisories may be required, with the warmest days expected to be Wednesday through Friday. The HeatRisk will be at Moderate to Major levels through the end of the work week. Therefore, heat related impacts will be possible. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Heavy showers and a couple embedded thunderstorms made their way from the Gulf into the southern Coastal Bend earlier this morning, now moving along an outflow boundary to the west inland around ALI. VSBYs have dropped to less than a mile in the heaviest downpours with MVFR ceilings and wind gusts up to around 25 knots. Expect this activity to continue westward and be focused over the Brush Country and along the Rio Grande (LRD) through this afternoon. Left out a mention in COT as guidance struggles to reach that far north and inland but we`ll need to keep a close eye on the progression of the outflow, could very well need an amendment. Conditions improve to VFR rather quickly outside of the immediate showers/storms. Rain chances diminish tonight as skies become mostly clear and mid- upper level winds become more continental/drier. However, low- level moisture continues to be usher in by southeasterly flow and could aid in fog development over the Coastal Plains. Greatest chances of the most dense fog occurring over the Victoria Crossroads again between 09-13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Onshore flow will strengthen slightly to weak to moderate through next weekend. There is a low to medium (15-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 91 77 92 / 10 20 0 30 Victoria 74 95 74 94 / 0 0 0 20 Laredo 75 93 77 95 / 20 20 0 10 Alice 74 93 75 95 / 0 30 0 20 Rockport 79 90 79 92 / 10 20 0 20 Cotulla 75 96 77 97 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 74 92 75 93 / 10 30 0 30 Navy Corpus 79 87 81 88 / 10 30 10 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF/94 LONG TERM....CLM/93 AVIATION...EMF/94