871
FXUS64 KCRP 151747
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The mid-level ridge across the southern U.S will begin to break
down this afternoon as a trough moves into the Central Plains.
Winds will increase from weak to moderate today. Moisture will
begin a slow return to the area Sunday over the offshore waters,
which could lead to a low chance of showers and thunderstorms over
the waters.

Temperatures will continue to be in the low 90s along the coast to
around 100 over the Brush Country. Moisture will still generally
remain limited over the offshore waters, keeping our heat index
values below 110 for most of the area. That being said, there is
still the chance that some isolated locations could reach heat
advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Key Messages:
- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical
development.

- Increasing moisture leading to higher rain chances next week.

The long-term forecast begins with a surface low developing over the
Rockies, which will deepen as an upper trough moves over the
Northwestern CONUS. This, combined with surface high pressure and
mid-level ridging over the Southeastern CONUS, will increase the
pressure gradient, enhancing onshore flow and bringing rich Gulf
moisture (PWATS around 2.00-2.80 inches) into South Texas.
Additionally, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the Bay of
Campeche for potential tropical development this weekend or early
next week, with a 50% chance of development over the next seven
days. Models consistently indicate the formation of a system that is
likely to move north and westward into Mexico. This system is
expected to further tighten the pressure gradient, increasing winds
along the Middle Texas Coast and heightening the heavy rainfall
threat for mid to late next week.

As a result, the Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal (level 1
of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday across much of the
Coastal Bend and a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall
for Wednesday across much of the Coastal Plains. Any storms that
form during this time may move slowly and have the potential to
produce heavy localized rainfall. While there continues to be model
spread regarding rainfall totals across the region, the NBM along
with the global ensemble models continue to hint of values between
1.75-3.50 inches in the areas covered by the WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks.

In addition to the potential of heavy rainfall, the region can
anticipate stronger east to southeast winds, leading to larger
swells, elevated tides, coastal flooding, and a higher risk of rip
currents. However, this forecast is subject to change as we are
still days out.

As moisture increases next week, heat indices are expected to reach
105-110 degrees for Monday and Tuesday, with a slight chance of heat
advisory conditions. However, due to cloud cover and chances for
showers and thunderstorms, temperatures will become a bit more
temperate Wednesday through Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to
mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR ceilings will prevail across all TAF sites through this
evening. Winds will be around 25 knots this afternoon through this
evening due to a tightening gradient across all sites. Guidance is
hinting at some brief periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings at sites
COT and ALI around day break tomorrow which seems plausible as
some moisture looks to get trapped under the inversion. Though
confidence is on the lower end, in order to account for this a
tempo was added around then. VFR conditions will follow soon after
and persist through the remainder of the period across all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend.
Moderate to strong onshore flow develops Monday into Tuesday and
continues throughout the upcoming week. The potential development
of a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche could increase
winds to over 20 knots and wave heights up to 8-10 feet. This
could lead to Small Craft Advisory issuance. The National
Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium 50% chance of
tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Rain chances are
set to increase with this area of disturbed weather to 50-80%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  95  79  94 /   0  20  10  50
Victoria          74  95  76  93 /   0  20  10  50
Laredo            78 103  78 103 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             76  98  76  98 /   0  10  10  30
Rockport          82  95  81  93 /  10  20  30  50
Cotulla           77 103  79 103 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        77  97  78  96 /   0  20  10  40
Navy Corpus       83  89  83  92 /  10  30  30  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...NP/92