750
FXUS64 KCRP 150503
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1203 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A subsident mid level ridge extending across the Southern U.S. will
continue to dominate our weather in the short term.  Our atmosphere
will continue to dry out with precipitable water values dropping
from near 2" this morning to around 1.50" on Saturday and 1.25" by
Saturday Night.  Thus we should see fewer clouds and at most only a
stray shower. The low level flow will remain weak tonight and early
Saturday, however the gradient tightens some by Saturday afternoon
as a trough moves into the central plains.  Temperatures will remain
a few degrees above climatology and Heat Indices will remain in
check and generally less than 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical
  development

- Rain chances increase next week

The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the Bay of
Campeche for potential development during the early to middle parts
of next week. Currently, the chance of formation stands at 50% over
the next seven days. Deterministic models show good agreement on the
formation of this closed surface low with a consensus on a westward
trajectory into Mexico. However, keep in mind that this forecast can
change as we are still quite a few days out. Regardless of
development, there is medium to high confidence that an influx of
tropical moisture will lead to increased local rain chances through
next week as PWAT values increase to 2.25-2.70". The NBM along with
the global ensemble models continue to show a large spread of about
2.75-3.50" rainfall between the 25th and 75th percentile next week,
with the most significant days begin mid-week. Therefore, confidence
remains low at this time in regards to rainfall amounts across the
region.

Seasonal temperatures are expected to continue Sunday through
Tuesday with areas along the coast in the lower to mid 90s and areas
in the Coastal Plains to the Brush Country in the upper 90s to near
102 degrees. As we head into next week with the expected
precipitation, daytime highs are expected to be cooler than normal
with highs topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s region wide. As
the moisture begins to increase next week, heat indices are
expected to climb into the 105-110 degree range Sunday through
Tuesday with a low chance of heat advisory conditions Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. East-
southeasterly winds have picked up a bit over the last few hours
with occasional gusts around 20 knots. Winds will gradually
become weak this evening. Brief MVFR conditions are possible at
ALI/COT/VCT Saturday morning. Wind gusts around 20 knots will be
possible through the afternoon before weakening shortly after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected through Saturday
Night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Sunday with
winds strengthening to moderate to strong Monday. Depending on the
development of the expected disturbance in the Bay of Campeche,
winds could increase to over 20 knots by mid-week. Medium to high
chances of rain are expected across the local waters from Monday
through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  94  79  95 /   0  10   0  20
Victoria          75  95  73  95 /   0  10   0  20
Laredo            78 101  77 102 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             76  98  75  98 /   0  10   0  20
Rockport          82  94  82  95 /   0  10  10  20
Cotulla           78 102  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  96  77  96 /   0  10   0  20
Navy Corpus       83  92  83  93 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...TC/95