Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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925 FXUS64 KCRP 211812 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 112 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Deep moisture continues to stream into the region today, characterized by PWAT values of 1.75 - 2". As a result, showers continue to develop across South Texas. While these are producing heavy rain, they are short lived. The best chance for continued precipitation through this evening will be across Brush Country with lesser chances towards the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend area. Isolated to scattered storms will continue to be possible area wide through Saturday. The Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect through this evening. A few locations continue to see moderate flooding as of this afternoon, though a transition to minor flooding is expected area wide tonight, which would warrant a Coastal Flood Advisory through the remainder of the short term period. The rip current risk will remain high through the short term period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 - Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development - Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related impacts A renewed fetch of deep tropical moisture will move into South Texas Saturday night with PWAT values nearing 2.5 inches across southern portions of the area and 2.25 inches elsewhere. This will be associated with a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. The NHC currently gives this a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days and a 60% chance over the next 7 days. Should this system develop, it will likely head towards the Mexico Coast. However, with a broad area of high pressure developing over the region, this should help to keep the majority of the impacts south of the region, with perhaps the exception of more widespread rain chances. Most of the guidance currently keeps the brunt of the precipitation over Deep South Texas and Northeastern Mexico with much less impressive amounts across our region. Just how far north this precipitation makes it will also have an impact on our cloud cover and thus our temperatures. If the brunt of the precipitation remains south, then dangerous heat will likely develop next week with heat indices exceeding 110 degrees for many locations during much of the week. There remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast beyond this weekend, but as the system moves over the Gulf this weekend, things should start to become more clear. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Isolated showers will continue to be possible through much of the forecast period, though any shower will be short lived. These could produce brief MVFR CIGS. Some spotty fog is also possible tonight, mainly at ALI and VCT, which could lead to some MVFR conditions after 09-10Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Wave heights continue to gradually subside, but will remain rough into this evening. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to end by 7PM this evening, so the Small Craft Advisory will likely be allowed to expire at that time. Expect a light to moderate onshore flow to persist through the weekend. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through early next week. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 78 91 / 30 40 30 60 Victoria 74 91 74 90 / 10 10 10 40 Laredo 76 90 76 91 / 20 50 20 60 Alice 75 90 76 91 / 30 40 20 70 Rockport 81 91 81 92 / 30 30 30 50 Cotulla 76 92 76 94 / 10 20 0 30 Kingsville 76 90 77 90 / 40 50 40 70 Navy Corpus 82 89 82 89 / 40 50 50 70 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>345-347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ250-255- 270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLM/93 LONG TERM....CLM/93 AVIATION...CLM/93